Month

Data flow was just horrible. Home sales plunge by a record, taking the US back to ’93 levels. Ireland’s downgrade spooked investors, CDS for peripheral EU rose by 5-10% (Portugal CDS 330bps, Ireland 325, Italy 227, Greece 921, and Spain 244). Morgan Stanley said a Gov’t default is likely but didn’t name names (desperate clients pay high fees – why upset ‘em). Asian numbers showed ongoing deceleration. Japan jawboned

Mara texted me, “u leave me, I’ll kill ya”. Kinda late, I’d just landed at JFK. She says that every time a friend gets divorced. I got that text once last yr and 3x this mth. All young families, very sad indeed. The recent 3 involve job loss in real estate & retail. Year 3 of the Global Financial Crisis is taking it’s toll. Savings are exhausted, depression’s setting in. For those employed, life is fine. For the

Hope all goes well. Met with lots of good folks in the Lone Star and Empire States. I had a better wk than our portfolio did. Declines in risk assets and USD strength hurt. We’ve been hoping for some weakness to buy and it often hurts on the way in. Overall: Data flow was just horrible. Home sales plunge by a record, taking the US back to ’93 levels. Ireland’s downgrade spooked investors, CDS for peripheral EU rose b

Data flow reinforced bearish arguments that as global stimulus fades, developed economies will double dip. A shocking deceleration in Japanese GDP combined with poor Empire State, Philly Fed and unemployment claims data in the US sent strategists scrambling to send their gloomy missives. Global yields continued to collapse, 30yr US inflation breakevens hit 1.9%, Dollar rallied and yet Gold managed to gain 1%. Key cen

Hope all goes well. Off to NY this wk, summer just wouldn’t be summer without a sweaty ride on a 4 Train and a boozy bonfire in South Hampton. Overall: Data flow reinforced bearish arguments that as global stimulus fades, developed economies will double dip. A shocking deceleration in Japanese GDP combined with poor Empire State, Philly Fed and unemployment claims data in the US sent strategists scrambling to send th

Mortgage broker called me with a deal. Said he’d lend me money at 4.35% for 30yrs. “The government is driving rates lower and now’s the time to refinance”, he said. Told him I had a 25yr mortgage, which gave him pause cause most of us who bought in ’05 are squatting these days. Anyhow, let him finish his pitch which amounted to calling me a donkey unless I took his deal. Not my kinda sale, but didn’t want to be a Jac

Hope all goes well. I spent the wk in Canada making new friends. Felt a lot cooler up there than it must’ve for the boys in the Hamptons. Overall: Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass hal

Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass half full fellas crawled out of their shallow graves. Goldman cut their S&P 500 yr-end target to match the prev wk dngrade of their econ forecast.

I’ve got a soft spot for big countries with small populations. They’re great to trade (and fun to visit) but you need to keep an eye on the exit. Australia’s got 7.5 people per sq/mile and Iceland 8 (US 178, China 361, Germany 594). This wk I went to Canada for some treasure hunting; they’ve 9 per sq/mile and I liked ‘em all. Those chilly Quebecois have a lot of fighting spirit: every other home has a swimming pool.

Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, China PMI at 51.2 is awfully close to 50, Russian drought fueled explosive wheat rally, US hm sales plunge