Month

Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan trade balance slips back into a deficit, Greece says won’t make June IMF payment without new bailout deal, Spain’s People’s Party suffers loses in muni elections, S&P closed; Tue: IMF “Renminbi no longer undervalued,” South Africa Q1 GDP soft at 1.3% yoy, New Zealand trade deficit 6yr high, Tsipras gets party approval to conclude bailout deal (Greece says out of money again), US core ca

Hope all goes well… Taking my one-way ticket to the airport today. Leaving California behind; an extraordinary eleven-year adventure now complete. Heading East, a new chapter. And feeling sentimental about it all, dusted of an anecdote on winding paths (see below). Should be back next Sunday with full wknd notes. But of course moving is more stressful than death, divorce, and getting caught short Dollar/Yen. So havin

Hope all goes well… “So Yellen told us in March she doesn’t want the Euro below 1.07,” said the CIO, uncharacteristically uninspired. “And the ECB has now told us they don’t want it above 1.15,” he yawned. “Tell me, who do you want to fight?” Markets are chopping in ranges. With the exception of Chinese equities. And slowly, quietly, Japan hit 20yr highs, as the S&P 500 made a new record. “Guess you just buy stoc

Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan machine orders +2.6% yoy (exp -6%), Japan IP -1.7% yoy, NZ introduces cap gains real estate tax (macro prudential policy), ISIS seizes Ramadi, Yemen conflict resumes, UK house prices fall most in 9mths, New Zealand announces cap gains tax on real estate, SF Fed paper “Q1 GDP may understate true strength of economy, S&P +0.3%; Tue: China record capital outflows(trade surplus stable), RBA

Hope all goes well… “Started getting really excited that yields were backing up as stocks were wobbling,” growled Bulldog. “That’s lights out, that’s where everyone gets eaten alive.” On an ageing planet with ample supply, deficient demand, sluggish growth and large debts, a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds would be ruinous. And every professional investor knows it. So having just tasted that trade, why has t

Narendra Modi floated in a sea of terracotta warriors. Marveling at the magnificence of ancient China. And the passage of time. Xi Jinping looked on, proud of his past, hungry for greatness. China’s first Emperor, Qin Shi Huang, was buried with 9,000 protective terracotta soldiers and horses. Which in 2015 AD ranks amongst mankind’s finest treasures, though in 209 BC it was its foremost capital misallocation. But it’

“The paradox, of course, is that anyone driven by insecurity and fear of failure who figures out its horrors then has to overcome the greatest fear of all,” he wrote, in response to last Sunday’s anecdote on insecurity, fear, drive, greatness. “Which is that overcoming a fear of failure might – you never know – be the equivalent of Superman uncovering Kryptonite,” continued the CIO, maintaining a delicate

“The key is to bring out in people the things they don’t realize make them great,” he said. We’d been seated together at one of those dinners, filled with unique folks. And this one spent his career building some of Wall Street’s top performing teams. “Nearly everyone is scared of being really good. They don’t want to fly so high that they get lost. It’s a very rare person who gets right after it, knows they’ve got i

She loaded her weapon. Applied her lipstick. Rehearsed her lines. Global bond markets were imploding. And with yields this low, it’s difficult to put the losses into context. But in two weeks, 10yr German Bund investors lost the equivalent of 29yrs worth of coupon payments. And sure as a fool and his money are soon parted, holders of $4trln of European bonds dizzied themselves in circular references, as their Excel s

Hope all goes well… “It’s like a football game, we’re returning to the field after half-time,” he said, fresh from some face-to-face with Bernanke at SALT. “And while we have no real plan for the third quarter, at least we know we’ll need to hike,” he continued. “But as for the fourth quarter, we know we can’t possibly have a game plan until we see how the third quarter plays out.” After the first rate move, the Fed