Month

Hope all goes well… Family formed a semi-circle, to witness the spectacle. I squatted behind the laundry machine, wrench in hand, more focused on the gushing leak than my plumbers crack. It all started back in August, when I was too focused on Xi Jinping to consider Thanksgiving. Mara invited 40 family members to stay for three days, and claims I agreed it was a good idea. Which best I can tell is how I ended up with

Week-in-Review: Mon: NZ migration soars to new highs, Singapore CPI -0.8%, Taiwan IP -6.15%, Saudis reportedly ready to cooperate with OPEC to stabilize prices, Belgium remains in lock down over terror concerns, EU comp PMI flash 54.4 (led by strong German numbers), Israel unemp +0.2 to 5.3%, Macri wins Argentina presidential election, Mexico ret sales +4.9%, US mfg PMI flash 52.6 (exp 54.0), existing home sales +3.9

Hope all goes well… “You know me,” said Simplicity, considering Occam’s razor. “This game is not about completing puzzles, it’s about finding pieces,” continued the CIO, leaning over to pick up this year’s last. “I know so little about so much,” he said, and paused for a moment, examining the contours of what he held. “But the Fed will hike while the ECB cuts rates in December, so the Euro will fall until then.” And

“Allah Akbar!” cried the bearded children, storming Mali’s hotel, Kalashnikovs ablaze, ignorant of the shameful irony. The third attack in as many weeks forced us to confront ourselves. Out came the worst, the best, everything in between. America’s xenophobes stoked the fires of fear. Painting a future of walled borders, religious IDs, ankle bracelets; things that allowed America to become what it has. Because withou

“Something true of all inflation targeting regimes is that they’re not set up to find a villain,” said the central banker. We were discussing how things had changed since our last chat, they always do, making forecasts look foolish. In the case of central bankers, such changes would normally open them up to accusations of making policy errors. “Inflation targeting regimes are rightly forward looking, and given variab

Hope all goes well… Sunni versus Shia. Sharia versus secular. The search for Islam’s soul. Beirut exploded, stirring dormant dogs. Paris bled, wept, raged. Border crossings closed, the far right rose. As the Thirty Years’ War escaped its borders, spilling into Europe. And the middle-east trudged inexorably toward the Dark Ages. Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 (see below). When I had more questions than answers. Back

Sunni versus Shia. Sharia versus secular. The search for Islam’s soul. Beirut exploded, stirring dormant dogs. Paris bled, wept, raged. Border crossings closed, the far right rose. As the Thirty Years’ War escaped its borders, spilling into Europe. And the middle-east trudged inexorably toward the Dark Ages. Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 (see below). When I had more questions than answers. Back when we had more hi

Hope all goes well… “Turn to page 67,” said Wall Street’s top US equity volatility strategist, something no kid in his right mind could’ve ever dreamed of becoming. But there we were, examining his volatility-cluster chart going back to 1932. You see, when volatility jumps, it either stays elevated for a while, forming a large cluster of high readings, or it falls swiftly leaving small clusters. Since 2005, for reaso

“Like it or not, the world functions on a supply of dollars; stock and flow,” he said. “Stock is the amount of dollar debt and its equivalents. Flow is the incremental dollars of GDP created; call that global income.” The stock of debt has never been larger, in both real and nominal terms. But 2015 global GDP, converted into dollars, will contract for the first time since 2009. “The world’s gross balance sheet is big

The good news was that bad news was good news. Or so it was in October, when the weak US unemployment number sparked the strongest monthly stock market rally in years. Because if US job growth is weak, there’s no way Yellen raises rates. Without rates hikes, the strong dollar is supposedly doomed. And a weaker dollar would boost exports and overseas profits, while easing the chronic greenback shortage suffered by eme