Month

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Rumors IMF pressing China for currency operation transparency, HK CPI +3.1%, UK house prices +7.6%, Saudi Arabia CPI +4.2%, Russia unemploy 5.8%, Russia retail sales -5.9% (wages -2.6%), Swiss M3 +1.7%, EU CA surplus E25.4bln, EU cons conf -9.7 (exp -8.3), US Chicago Fed activity index -0.29 vs 0.25e, US existing home sales -7.1% MoM (exp -3%), Hawkish fed governors indic

Hope all goes well. Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 about doing silly things. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Rumors IMF pressing China for currency operation transparency, HK CPI +3.1%, UK house prices +7.6%, Saudi Arabia CPI +4.2%, Russia unemploy 5.8%, Russia retail sales -5.9% (wages -2.6%), Swiss M3 +1.7%, EU CA surplus E25.4bln, EU cons conf -9.7 (exp -8.3),

“Our chief goal is to make China moderately prosperous by the end of the decade,” stated Prime Minister Li Keqiang to Congress. 2,778 delegates pushed a red button, approving the 13th Five-Year-Plan. 53 brave delegates voted against, 25 abstained. Not a bad showing for a plan that will slash 6mm steel and coal jobs, one of countless sacrifices required to execute the most ambitious and challenging economic transition

Hope all goes well… “You know what I wish Daddy?” asked Charlie, eyes reflecting rainbows. It had been quite a morning. His trap failed to catch the Leprechaun. The lucky little guy stole the gold bait and got away. Mara left tiny emerald footprints to track his path. The Leprechaun had failed to flush. Charlie discovered the toilet water colored Irish green. Then we all sat down to examine the flaws in this year’s t

“We hit peak hysteria on Feb 11th,” said the CIO. Nine months of fears that the US and China were committing policy errors reached a climax. “If you’d forced investors to write down what would’ve made them bullish on China and emerging market assets, they would have written ‘nothing.’ They felt they had the map, knew the path.” And now here we are – no man’s land. “China pumped $500bln of credit into the system

Hope all goes well… “What’s the difference between the Chinese driving a massive short-covering rally in the miners and the ECB doing the same with European banks?” asked the CIO, heavily long the latter, not waiting for an answer. “Nothing.” Glencore bottomed at 69 and now trades 142. The Euro Stoxx banking index bottomed at 95 and now trades 115. “Are people right to be short miners over the long-term? Yes. Are the

“Maybe it’s rallying because Europe’s inflation rate is falling even faster than Draghi is cutting interest rates,” he said, searching. The Euro touched 1.0822 shortly after the surprise announcement of vastly expanded stimulus. And then reversed abruptly, powerfully, counter-intuitively. “Perhaps it’s because Draghi said he’s not cutting rates again,” he continued. I considered it. Listened. The Euro blinked quietly

“I believe human intuition and human senses are too advanced for artificial intelligence to catch up,” said Lee Se-dol, mankind’s Go champion, a game with more possible moves than there are atoms in the universe. His opponent hummed quietly, patiently – DeepMind – the world’s most advanced form of artificial intelligence. And who doesn’t like a challenge? A little sport? Draghi does. Every central banker does.

Hope all goes well… “Markets provide no explanations,” said Yoda, basking in St. Barts. “They provide prices.” Yoda walked the remote beach, waves advancing lightly up the sand, leaving small traces at each apex. “Illiquid things are impossible to sell when markets decline, so people hedge their risks with whatever they can.” S&P 500 futures, the Russell, ETFs, indexes. “When markets turn higher, these hedges adv

“His promises are as worthless as a Trump University degree. He’s playing members of the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House, and all we get is a lousy hat,” announced Romney, telling Americans what to do, while trying to be funny. One 90 year old white guy laughed. “Do not come to Europe. Do not believe the smugglers. Do not risk your lives and your money. It’s all f