Month

Here we go again. Iron ore prices surged 15%, extending the rise from December’s low to 70%. Copper jumped 5%, not quite exceeding the March highs. Cement jumped too. As did most things that the Beijing boys need for a building bubble. Even oil exploded higher, climbing 4.8% to new 4mth highs. And remember, just last Sunday the largest conclave of Trustafarians on planet earth failed to limit its production. The Doha

Hope all goes well… “On Thursday this bull market will become the 2nd longest in American history,” bellowed Biggie Too. “2,607 days old,” barked Biggie, not missing a beat. “Gonna surpass the 1949-1956 raging run. The 1990-2000 bubble was the longest.” From 2009 to the end of QE in Oct 2014, a 50/35/10/5 weighted portfolio of equities, bonds, commodities and cash returned 98%. But since then it’s fallen 3%. “First w

“Tell me what price means,” instructed Yoda, high in the Rockies. I sat quietly. “It means both nothing and everything,” he whispered. “Price means nothing if you must sell or buy.” And I considered the rising tide of global capital chasing diminishing returns, the crowding of positions, the scarcity of transactional liquidity. “But price means everything if you want to understand what is real in the world.” The majo

“People work in order to convert their time into a unit of account,” he said. “We call that money, and it’s an invention that allows us to store time.” Most people have stored little or none. So when they receive money, they quickly purchase necessities; food, shelter, health care. “People who are able to save money inevitably purchase real estate, stocks, bonds – all of which are alternative vehicles for storing tim

Hope all goes well… “In the act of taking risk, it’s a rare thing to initiate a trade and make money right away,” said Simplicity. “You almost always face challenges, hurdles, things that force you to question yourself,” he continued, walking Occam’s razor. “If you then discover you took risk to avoid missing out on a move, or because it seemed like it just made some sense, you’ll be shaken out and lose money.” He pa

“All major economies need to deploy a full toolkit of economic policy measures to address weak demand, boost employment and raise living standards,” announced Jack Lew. “This includes monetary and fiscal policies and structural reforms,” continued America’s Treasury Secretary. Of course he’s right, it’s obvious. Self-evident. We’ve been here before, quite recently. Which is both a blessing and curse. “Global policy m

Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: Japan monetary base +28.5%, Aussie retail sales 0% MoM (building approvals -9%), Korea FDI +19.3%, Turkey CPI +7.46% (PPI +3.8%), Italian Q4 deficit/GDP 2.6%, EU investor confidence 5.7 (exp 7.0), EU unemploy 10.3% (PPI -4.2%), US factory orders -1.7%, durable goods orders -3.0%, NY ISM 50.4 (exp 54.1), S&P -0.3%; Tue: Japan real cash earnings +0.4%, Abe “countries must a

Hope all goes well… “You know what I’m going to bring with me when I die?” whispered Charlie, curling up in my lap, our tears rolling. I stroked his hair. “I’m going to bring a leash.” I’d put down our beloved Wolfie, loyal retriever, our family’s best friend for nine golden years. Cancer. A sudden diagnosis. An unexpected farewell. All in the space of a single devastating Thursday. “So when I see Wolfie again in hea

Hope all goes well… “You can buy as much insurance as you want in every asset class,” said Roadrunner, pecking at a pile. “In a few weeks, we’ve swung from the end of the world to the end of volatility.” Markets overshoot on the downside and upside, vol is no exception. “They’re getting over confident, they’re recklessly selling volatility.” The market’s biggest vol trader glanced left, right, overhead. “I’ve turned

“I think about it all the time,” said the Dean of Technology. We were discussing the future, and what it means to be human. He’s building New York’s most ambitious institution for graduate education. Gotham’s swipe at Stanford. And as our great universities partner with government and business, concentrating technology and human intelligence, societal change accelerates. We live in one of humanity’s great periods of