Month

“You either have risk on, or you do not,” said Simplicity, walking Occam’s Razor, “There are only these two states, nothing more.” He lifted both hands, palms up, to illustrate the point. “Now, reflect on the levels of anxiety you have experienced in each state throughout your career.” And decades of an agitated existence flashed before my eyes. “There are times when you are carrying an enormous amount of risk and sl

Hope all goes well… “You know the thing about being in the middle?” asked Teddy, over a one-on-one dinner. “I annoy Jackson, Jackson bullies me. I bully Charlie and Charlie annoys me,” explained my middle son. “So out of the three of us, I’m the only one who gets annoyed and bullied.” I laughed, as did he. You see, Teddy finds the humor in things. It’s there for those who look. He falls asleep reading comic books, wa

Overall: “The media has not reported that the National Debt in my first month went down by $12 billion vs a $200 billion increase in Obama first month,” tweeted our president, his latest work of high art. The ability to express concise complexity is a sublime talent. Of course, Hemmingway rises above all others, and wrote a great American novel in 27-characters – “For sale: baby shoes, never worn.” But Trump’s

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese iron ore and copper prices jump 7%, Japan GDP -0.3 to +1.0%, India CPI 3.17% (5yr low), Macron says Russia is hacking his campaign, German wholesale inflation 4.0% (6yr high), OPEC cuts Jan oil output 1.1mm barrels, EIA says US oil production to jump 80k barrels in March, Mnuchin confirmed as Treasury Secretary, S&P +0.5%; Tue: China PPI +6.9% (5yr highs), Chi

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about the power of patience (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese iron ore and copper prices jump 7%, Japan GDP -0.3 to +1.0%, India CPI 3.17% (5yr low), Macron says Russia is hacking his campaign, German wholesale inflation 4.0% (6yr high), OPEC cuts Jan oil output 1.1mm barrels, EIA says US oi

“The UK, US and Italy have rejected the established orthodoxy of the post-1979 period,” said the CIO, in one of those English accents that make American’s feel stupid. “Prior to 1979 it was accepted that the overriding aim of economic policy should be the pursuit of full employment.” Post-1979 the only object of government policy has been the pursuit of a declining inflation rate. “The former (full employment) bias s

Hope all goes well… “All further migration from mainly Muslim countries should be stopped,” was the statement published by Chatham House, a prominent London-based independent think tank, before Trump announced his Muslim ban. 10,000 Europeans responded to the poll as follows: EU Total (55% agree with the statement, 20% disagree, the balance neither agreed nor disagreed), Belgium (64% agree, 15% disagree), Greece 58%

Overall: “More than absurd!” cried Jens Weidmann, outraged by Pete Navarro. Trump’s trade advisor had deliberately talked-down the dollar to boost US exports by accusing Germany of deliberately weakening the euro to boost European exports. The argument is quite obviously absurd, because everyone’s trying to engineer a weaker currency. But according to Jens, it’s so absurd as to be more than absurd. Like lifting yours

“The only ones who don’t seem to understand are the economists,” said the economist, a Nobel Laureate. He was discussing the importance of narrative in society. “Economists talk about interest rates, price-to-earnings ratios, and obscure formulas as if we’ve arrived from a different planet. These things don’t drive people. Stories drive people.” Of course, economists may not know how to tell a good bedtime story, but

Hope all goes well… “You know how I’m really nice?” asked Charlie (7) at the dinner table. And we all smiled, never knowing what comes next with this kid. After all, I called him Osama bin Charlie for the first time when he was three and it stuck for good reason. “Seriously, you have no idea? Go ahead, take a guess,” he taunted, a little irritated. We all shrugged. “Well, when I get out on that lacrosse field, I’m no