Month

Overall: “This is more work than in my previous life,” admitted President Trump to Reuters, “I thought it would be easier.” And cleansed by confession, the Donald drifted off. “What a 100-days,” he thought. So many, many thoughts. Big ones, huge. “And I’ve accomplished the impossible,” mused our mogul. You see, never had a candidate lost the popular vote by 2.9mm and won. Never had a candidate carried a lower favorab

Hope all goes well… “Some bad guy robbed our gas station today, he had a mask and gun,” said Charlie on Monday. “The same guy robbed Chase bank today,” said Olivia on Tuesday. Pressure on hedge fund fees has thrown Greenwich into a state of anarchy. “The guy robbed the same bank today – the exact same bank, two days in a row! Can you believe it?” screeched Teddy on Wednesday. And of course I can, volatility is

“For all of history – prior to 1955 – there was roughly equal probability of inflation or deflation in any given year,” said the economic historian. “But since 1955 we’ve experienced uninterrupted annual inflation. It’s a stunning fact, unprecedented. To an economist in 1955, the coming 60yr inflation would have appeared less probable than a catastrophic meteor impact.” After enduring a series of world wa

Hope all goes well… “Where did the first acorn come from Daddy?” asked Charlie, staring out the Suburban, on the drive home from lacrosse. “And where did the mountains come from?” continued my inquisitive 7yr old. “How was the world made?” he asked. “But where did the universe come from?” he asked, excited that each answer quite naturally led to more questions. “But then what came before the Big Bang?” asked Charlie,

“I started out buying private companies at 6x,” he said. “As the years passed, 6x became 8x, then 10x, 12x.” He paused, looking out across Gotham, an island in perpetual motion. “The market is now doing deals at 14x, hoping high multiples remain.” The private equity boom began quietly in the 1980s. The tumultuous 1970s had produced a 7.0 Shiller price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 and 15% 10yr treasury bond y

Overall: “A country must make strategic choices,” explained Xi Jinping, praising aluminum factory workers for upgrading production to aerospace standards. “And China’s choice is to boost manufacturing,” continued the mighty Mandarin, ascending the value chain. “We’re going to use American steel, we’re going to use American labor,” tweeted Trump, descending the chain, on collision course with Xi. Today’s most importan

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from May 2015 on the topic of meaning. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US deploys warships to Korean waters, China to offer Trump better fin services access and beef/grain imports, Kuroda “will maintain QQE until core CPI exceeds 2%,” Russia “have discussed oil output cut extension,” France forecasts Q1 GDP +0.3% (full-yea

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US deploys warships to Korean waters, China to offer Trump better fin services access and beef/grain imports, Kuroda “will maintain QQE until core CPI exceeds 2%,” Russia “have discussed oil output cut extension,” France forecasts Q1 GDP +0.3% (full-year +1.3%), Melenchon overtakes Fillon in French presidential polls with 18% vs 17% (Le Pen and Macron tied at 24%), Yellen

“The change of change is now negative,” said the CIO. “Global growth is still rising, but the rate of improvement is slowing,” he explained. “Same holds true for global inflation, oil prices, copper, iron ore. Credit growth is slowing in the US, Europe, Japan, China.” If these things were all contracting, we’d plunge into recession, but we’re not there. We’re simply at the point in the cycle where the rate of acceler

Overall: “It crossed a lot of lines for me. Many, many lines, beyond a red line, many, many lines,” said Trump, a kaleidoscope of bright colors swirling before him. “The attack on innocent children, beautiful babies, that had a big impact on me – big impact,” he admitted, incensed. “My view toward Syria and Assad has changed very much.” And that’s not the only thing that changed very much. You see, for all the talk o