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“There are two types of macro traders,” said the macro trader. “The first makes money when what’s supposed to happen actually happens,” he continued. “They tend to own emerging markets, the S&P 500. They buy high yield and anything that rolls down a curve.” These strategies are implicitly short volatility; usually a winning proposition. “The second type of macro trader looks for situations where policy makers hav

Hope all goes well… “Hey, where the hell’s my pipe bomb?” muttered Nancy Pelosi, irate, shaken. “And where’s mine?” cried Chuck Schumer. “What’s so special about Cory Booker and Kamala Harris?” whined Kirsten Gillibrand. Diane Feinstein grumbled the same. Michael Bloomberg hired a consultant to explore the matter. “Here’s a crayon. Go check Elizabeth Warren’s mailbox. You find anything heavy, readdress it to me,” bar

“Know what I’m grateful for Dad?” asked Jackson (16). We were headed back down the mountain, swiftly, steadily, darkness closing in. “I’m grateful it didn’t happen to Charlie, Teddy, Olivia, or Mom,” he said. Our five-hour climb up Mount Madison had been hard, unexpectedly steep. Charlie barely made it. The summit view stretched across New Hampshire’s presidential range, we relaxed in a mossy shallow, a mountain spri

Hope all goes well… “Wanna know what they’re asking Biggie?” bellowed Biggie Too, rocking through life in third person. “They say Biggie, tell us why this market is so oversold but can’t catch a bid,” continued the Global Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too Big to Fail affairs. “They say Biggie, tell us why the Feds announced a $800bln budget deficit from all that pretty stimulus but our small ca

The future is unknowable. Yet never has capital been so concentrated in strategies that depend on the future closely resembling the past. The most dominant of these strategies requires bonds to rally when stocks fall. For decades, both rose inexorably. And a new array of increasingly complex and illiquid strategies depends on a jump in volatility to be followed by a rapid decline of equal magnitude. They appear uncor

Hope all goes well… “I’ve been to three meetings, but I couldn’t tell you the club’s name,” confessed Jackson, my 16yr old. “Something to do with battling domestic abuse,” he continued, “The more clubs you have, the better your college app.” Club inflation has arrived, the Phillips curve finally kicked in. “My other club is SADD or something like that.” I asked what it meant. “Students against dumb decisions, or drun

“Why do people call ‘upstate’ New York upstate?” asked my Uber driver, grinding, we all are. “It’s a different country,” I answered. “I always like asking New Yorkers the question, and that’s usually the answer,” he said. Couldn’t quite place his accent, southern but not thick. “I was born upstate, Troy, New York, but never once been back,” I explained, surprised to hear it come out that way, another nomadic American

Hope all goes well… “The US is experiencing a remarkably positive set of economic circumstances,” said Jay Powell. “There’s really no reason to think this cycle can’t continue for quite some time,” continued the Fed Chairman. “We’re a long way from neutral Fed Funds at this point, probably.” Unemployment returned to the 1969 low of 3.7%, spurred by an unprecedented late-cycle fiscal stimulus. Q3 earnings are expected