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Hope all goes well… “Vice Chairman Clarida said policy normalization is like crossing a dark room barefoot — you step carefully,” said the CIO. “This implies that the biggest risk the Fed faces is a stubbed toe and a quick retreat.” But given the dominant role of liquidity in today’s market structure, the profound complexity of our financialized global economy and its growing susceptibility to discontinuities,

“Can’t really go into it Dad,” said Olivia (15). I’d asked for details, she’d come home at sunrise, empowered, electric, alive. “Mom said you had an intense all-nighter. I want to make sure you’re okay Liv.” In the 1970s, an inspired paramedic created America’s only first-responders program manned entirely by high school students. Forty-nine years later, every 911 medical emergency within our small town is routed to

A“The pendulum has returned to its starting point,” said the CIO. “We had a massively regulated, terribly inefficient economy,” he continued. “Carter started deregulating. Then Reagan. They got government out of the rule-making business.” Efficiency surged. “Deregulation made the market the final arbiter of which businesses succeeded and failed.” But as lobbyists swarmed the swamp, antitrust legislation lifted like a

Hope all goes well… The US government remained shut. But pollsters carried on. 81% of Likely Democratic Voters favor a Green New Deal, focused on climate change, income inequality and racial injustice — 63% of Republicans are opposed, Independents are evenly divided. 59% of voters support raising the marginal tax rate on the richest Americans to 70%. Democrats overwhelming support the tax hike, with 71% in favo

Let’s go back a decade, I told the CIO. We were discussing where to put money for the coming years. Most often investors look backward for trends and extrapolate their trajectories into the future, or they search for beaten down assets, hoping for mean reversion. But what should you do after a year where nearly everything declined? Treasury bills outperformed virtually all assets last year. Such broad outperformance

Hope all goes well… “I’m not bothered by the government shutdown,” said the investor. “I feel for the people directly affected, but it won’t last forever. And besides, if you shut the government two months of every year, I bet we discover how to make it more efficient,” he continued. “And I’m guessing Trump wants a deal with China, so I’m not overly bothered by that. I’m more worried about how the market trades after

Hope all goes well… “Abandoned babies in the streets,” bellowed Biggie Too. “Crawling around crying about this and that,” continued the Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “They’re screaming – the economy is slowing, GE is going broke, Mommy, Mommy, where you at?” barked Biggie, in baritone. The Dec 19th Powell comments left everyone scared our Fed Chairman is another V

“General Mattis retired in 2013 with four stars, worked in academia, and was recalled to serve President Trump as secretary of defense. He gained a reputation as the most independent, and best, of the president’s cabinet officers, serving as a reassuring bulwark to America’s allies who sometimes questioned the president’s commitment to fighting common enemies,” wrote the Army officer. “The reputation Mattis earned fo