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A“I’m not yet sure how to think about the conflict,” said the same macro CIO. “I can imagine a world where East and West coexist peacefully, but I know some powerful people here who think the window is closing on America’s ability to contain China and maintain military superiority,” he said. “That’s the kind of worldview that leads to kinetic conflict. But the US misunderstands China. Ironically, it is strong now but

Hope all goes well… “Chairman, the horse has left the barn, you have all of the information,” said Joseph Macguire, Acting Director of National Intelligence. But of course, in these sorts of matters, when a person of authority first says you have all the information, the only thing you know for sure is that there’s more to come. And with that, the markets repriced. In betting websites, odds of Trump completing his fi

“When the board asked me to lead this course, I wondered how to hold the student’s attention for 3yrs,” said the teacher, intelligent, passionate, perfect. Mara and I hustled class-to-class, getting fifteen-minute intros to our kid’s courses. Olivia insisted we visit this 3yr independent-study class. “But I quickly found we were pressed for time,” added the teacher. Darien high school sophomores can opt for a 3yr cla

Hope all goes well… “Can’t believe we did it. I’m really just pretty numb,” said Sarah Thomas, siting on wet pebbles, having extended the boundary of what we imagine possible. She swam the English Channel four times in 54hrs. It’s an 84-mile journey, but with currents Sarah swam 130. “There were a lot of people on the beach to meet me, wish me well, and it was really nice of them, but I feel just mostly s

Hope all goes well… “Wanted to make sure you’re seeing this,” texted a PM from one of those multi-manager monstrosities. “8 standard deviation move in the Momentum Factor in 5-days,” he added. I heard his heart pounding all the way from Australia. “Guys who defended positions in the Q4 selloff all got fired, so the message is real clear – when things start getting weird, take immediate corrective action.” And I imagi

AFor as long as he could remember, it was the same. Presidents came and went, rising, falling, like the tides. They commanded a House or Senate majority, sometimes both. They started wars, each time rediscovering they’re easier to enter than exit. Our Presidents addressed the nation annually, pretending to lead, but followed. The State of the Union ebbed and flowed like the market, reflecting an economy over which th

AThe clock is ticking, he thought, gazing out at 35,000 feet. Above was the most perfect blue. Far below, concealed by clouds, lay Hong Kong. In tumult. He’d always admired the rebels, the risk takers. They’re our salvation, our liberators, without them nothing changes. And since the protests had started, he marveled at the brave young souls who dare defy Beijing and its puppet, Carrie Lam. The British returned Hong

Hope all goes well… “When a central bank undershoots its inflation target, it can promise to the public that it will overshoot in the future,” said Chairman Powell. “As it makes up for lost inflation, the bank would also be making up for lost growth,” he added. But of course, central banks cannot make up for anything that is lost. Central banks can only choose to pull real growth from the future to the present or pus

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an old anecdote about inequality and the powerful forces that propagate it (see below). I wrote it just 2yrs ago, summer of 2017, when Argentina issued a $2.75bln 100yr bond at a 7.9% yield (40bps above the average US State Pension Plan target return). And despite having defaulted eight times in their 200yr history, the Argentina 2117 issue was gobbled up. Those bonds now trade at 38 ce