Month

Hope all goes well… “I think it’s probably a little early to make that call Dad,” said Teddy, soaked to the bone, muddy, holding a fistful of poison ivy like a trophy. I’d asked whether he and Charlie would someday spend their weekends weeding in the rain with their kids. “I suppose it depends how your experiment works out Dad,” said Charlie, pulling pokeweed. “What experiment is that?” I asked, laughing, knowing. “U

Hope all goes well… “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’ becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine,” wrote Nobel economist Paul Krugman in 1998. “Bitcoin isn’t a new innovation; it’s been around since 2009, and in all that time nobody see

The Fed cut rates to what had once seemed an impossibility. It then left them there. Skepticism that rates would remain perpetually low eventually gave way to acceptance, which was soon followed by financial engineering. Back then, in 1993, with overnight rates held at 3.00%, yield-enhanced structured products offered 4.00% yields, 5.00%, sometimes higher, but only if overnight rates remained unchanged. To generate t

“What are you thinking about markets here?” asked the entrepreneur, wedging the question into our conversation, but working hard to sound barely interested. I laughed, unable to contain it. “Oh, so you really called to ask about bitcoin,” I said, smelling his quiet panic. “Well, you know, yeah basically, I mean what do think about all this stuff going on?” he asked, not wanting anything other than reassurance. “You d

Hope all goes well… “Our model – which uses known data on 121 variables, from recorded deaths to demography – suggests that COVID-19 has claimed 7.1mm-12.7mm lives,” wrote The Economist. “Our central estimate is the real tally of ‘excess deaths’ is over three times the official count,” continued the publication, proceeding to explore the enormity of risks facing the developing world. The West’s pandemic r

“The coaches called us into the office one by one,” said my oldest, finishing plebe year, his team having failed to make quarterfinals. “They told each of us exactly what we need to work on if we hope to ever see the field,” he continued. “They said I have almost everything except for consistency, but without that, I’m useless to them. If a human doesn’t drink water every day they die, and if I don’t spend 45mins eve

Hope all goes well… “We’re hopeful it will land in a place where it won’t harm anyone,” said Lloyd Austin. “Hopefully in the ocean, or someplace like that,” added the US Defense Secretary, drifting off, thinking about Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live debut like everyone else, and Dogecoin’s recent 1,000% stratospheric rise in anticipation of tonight’s show. And somewhere high above, China’s 18-ton rocket skipped acros

How this inflation plays out will be different from anything that has come before it. It is always so. Naturally, some aspects will resemble the past. This inflation will inevitably be volatile, such periods of price changes typically are. And in the early stages, nearly everyone will persuade themselves that it is transitory. In the late stages, those same people will conclude that it is permanent. Throughout the pr

Hope all goes well… “No one has really traded inflation,” bellowed Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s mightiest Too Big To Fail affairs. “We don’t know the psychological impact on macro policy and the markets of a genuine inflation.” Behind Biggie, so many screens, flashing futures. “Copper, iron ore, tin, steel,” barked Biggie. “Lumber, corn, soybeans,” he said, lifting his hands high in th