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“Web 1.0 was flat, static,” said the visionary, unseating the slow-moving incumbents. “Web 2.0 arrived and was dynamic, interactive — it is what we mostly experience today,” added the founder/CEO, lifting his phone from the table, looking at the screen, placing it gently down. “Web 3.0 will be immersive. And we will spend an increasing amount of our lives within the new worlds that it will open.” I’d zipped int

Hope all goes well… All great investment opportunities close gaps. In the most basic sense, they narrow the space between where a price is now and where it should be. The biggest ones appear when most of us see one reality, while subterranean forces are creating something quite different. When such gaps exist, markets tend to send subtle signals, behaving in ways that make little sense based on our understanding of c

The market is never wrong. The price it produces reflects the collective wisdom of humanity, weighted toward those with the most capital at risk. And because money generally flows to those with the greatest aptitude, the collective judgement resulting from their aggregate bets – reflected in the market clearing price – does a better job than any other forecasting algorithm ever developed. But just because

Hope all goes well… “You know the best thing about dying in a skydiving accident Dad?” asked my 18yr old daughter in the kitchen. “What’s that Liv?” I asked, smiling. Mara looked on, increasingly unhappy with us both. “If you die of old age, you won’t even move the statistical needle, but if you die tomorrow, you’ll have a material impact on the number of Connecticut skydiving deaths,” explained my morbid mathematici

There are two good things about being young and broke. The best part of course, is that you are not old. But you also have little to lose. And that is liberating for a person with decades to recover from taking risk in ventures that might fail. Having a large group of such youth is an invaluable asset for the older citizens supported by their innovations and output. But powerful forces, if improperly managed, create

Hope all goes well… “Before investing in a fund that holds bitcoin futures contracts, make sure that you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits,” warned the SEC via a Thursday evening tweet. Twitter blew up. Digital asset prices surged. Because of course, Biden’s SEC Chairman, who consults with the Treasury Secretary and others on crypto would only approve an ETF if they were going to let the market decide

“Always buy ahead of buy orders,” he said on my first day. I’d started my career in the corn pit because old-timers said I’d lose money less quickly there. “Sell in front of sell orders,” he said. Made sense. If brokers held large orders to sell corn at $2.50 per bushel and a buy order entered the pit, I’d fight to sell at $2.50. If prices subsequently dropped, I’d make money, and if they pressed higher, I’d cover my

Hope all goes well… The United Arab Emirates has the world’s best performing equity market this year (+52.8% year-to-date, priced in US dollars). Russia has the second-best performing market (+33.6% priced in US dollars). Saudi Arabia is third (+33.5% in dollars). All three have a lot of oil, the consumption of which quite obviously contributes to climate change. Public companies throughout the developed world, and t

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak,” whispered Xi to himself, refocusing on Sun Tzu wisdom, pushing Lao Tzu to the far recesses of his rattled mind. Xi recognized the near impossibility of his renminbi overtaking the US dollar, and yet there is value in having so many people believe this is his plan. The world’s nations hold $7.1trln in official US dollar reserves (22.7x the world’s $312bl

Hope all goes well… “Is it your intention to ban or limit the use of cryptocurrencies, like we’re seeing in China?” asked Ted Budd, Republican congressman from North Carolina. “No,” replied Fed Chairman Jay Powell. “No intention to ban them?” asked Budd again. “No intention to ban them, but stablecoins are like money market funds, they’re like bank deposits; they’re to some extent outside the regulatory perimeter, an