anecdotes

“We’ve become anesthetized to the absurdity of Chinese growth,” said the CIO. The accelerating rate of credit expansion relative to GDP has no precedent. “They’ve run off the cliff so fast that people seem to think they’ll actually make it to the other side.” China figured out the fiat currency game. “A government can monetize its debts, provided it avoids two extremes internal to its economy; inflation above the soc

“Nothing ever stays the same. Ever,” he said. “All the people you’ve known over the years,” he said, squinting, looking back through time. “How many are still in the industry?” I considered the question. So many names, faces, personalities. Most gone. “You got to be adaptable. That’s my nature. I challenge the status quo. I’m a destroyer, a disrupter.” I looked around his office, the abstract artwork all different fr

  “What’s good for the US in this case, is not good for emerging markets,” said the CIO. “Emerging markets benefit from a weaker dollar, and you’re not going to get that,” he continued. “Emerging markets benefit from global capital flows moving in their direction and that’s not happening either.” Back in February, emerging markets were in sharp decline, driven by (1) a strong dollar, (2) rising US interest rates

“Let’s say you and I were both Italian politicians,” said the CIO. “We’d conclude that ‘Abandon the Euro’ platform is a can’t lose proposition.” We might not win the next election, but we’d eventually prevail. “Italy had an imperfect system that worked for ages; increase annual wages 10% then devalue the Lira 15% to stay internationally competitive.” Germany had the opposite; raise wages modestly and pursue a strong

“We decided to close our firm,” read the email from a friend. I moved it to a folder that’s filling up fast. Been a brutal year in an unforgiving industry. Change is in the air. It usually arrives slowly, quietly, fog. But sometimes change is a hurricane. Today’s tempest is snapping saplings, uprooting oaks. A large state pension just announced a “Back to Basics” investment strategy; the commission voted unanimously

“Right back where we started,” said the CIO, spinning, dizzy. “Twelve months ago we were talking about a December rate hike.” The Fed was intent on normalizing interest rates, and if the rest of the world struggled to adjust, so be it. “It was their experiment with raising real interest rates and they were telling us to expect four more hikes in 2016.” Inflation had remained subdued ever since the 2008 crisis, but in

My email to the team… Subject: Good Company Hi All – Late last night, I was reading an analysis on the state of the world economy written by a leader in our field. Being interested in discussing it further, I sent him an email, asking to get together. And with my fingers limbered up, I fired off notes to two others of similar stature. All three replied either side of 11pm. One of their personal assistants followed up

“Can’t wait for football season to end,” said Jackson, my oldest. Seemed odd, so I waited, quiet. “Literally can’t wait for lacrosse season.” He’s fourteen, Greenwich High. Now, my freshman year was an utter disaster. I’d moved from NYC to the suburbs, having only ever played dodgeball. So I cycled through every conceivable sport, in search of one I sucked at less than all others. Which resulted in an even tie: footb

“African countries have gone through three distinct phases,” explained the public servant. “The first was romantic socialism.” Africa shed its colonial rulers between 1956-1964; Kenya, Ghana, Namibia, Malawi, almost every country. “Independence leaders were generally honest. They felt the land and minerals were resources that should be shared, and believed a strong state was necessary to ensure this.” These countries