anecdotes

“The next recession is going to be very gentle,” said my favorite strategist. “The excesses in this cycle are just not that big, or they’ve already corrected.” Industrials and resources have been cleaned out. Housing is fine, except for inconsequential bubbles in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Sweden. And banks are too boring to blow up. “The gorilla in the room is obviously China, because a hard landing there w

“I’m sorry for your losses of lizards,” read the handwritten note, in red crayon. “I hope they had a good life,” continued the condolence from our neighbor’s daughter. We’d bought a bearded dragon for Teddy. And that first night, he fed it fireflies. Which we instantly discovered are reptile Kryptonite. And having poisoned the poor little lizard before he’d even been named, we raced back to the store. To double down.

  “John McEnroe would lose 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 to today’s top ten players,” he said. “Literally, he couldn’t even play this game.” We were watching Djokovic dismantle Monfils at the US Open. “The history of competition is the study of knowledge and skill.” McEnroe’s skills have long since become common knowledge. “For decades, knowledge and skill were highly integrated in our industry. Which was probably correct, beca

“There’s no way out, they need to stimulate through it,” said the CIO. In 1965 the government spent 3.25% of GDP on research and development, today its 1.25%. That missing 2% of America’s $18trln economy equals $360bln of annual R&D investment. Gone baby gone. In 2000, NYC spent 8% of its budget on healthcare and pensions, today that’s 29% and rising. “Taking these factors into account, developed economies have t

“I do one thing really well,” said the CIO, raising an index finger, looking at it, considering it, so simple. “I am really good at identifying things that in 60-90 days will appear to have been patently absurd,” he continued. “In February, everyone was consumed by the bear case.” China slowing, populations ageing, the world overburdened by debt, leverage and excess capacity. “People took these arguments so far that

“Has Brexit created the political Lehman moment?” asked the CIO on the outskirts of the Eurozone. We were discussing whether Britain’s populist revolt is the catalyst for a global fiscal stimulus, or if this latest risk-asset rally in anticipation of more stimulus is another bounce to fade. “Has Brexit absolved markets of the need to fall sharply?” he continued. You see, the way this usually works is that economic we

“Today’s most important question is whether the inexorable trend toward zero is good or bad for stocks,” explained Lithium, hands free on Highway One. “The more we have considered this simple question, the better we’ve become at articulating a simple answer.” Low rates are quite obviously supportive for stocks, at least in America. Where the S&P 500 now trades at all-time highs, with bond yields at historic lows.

“When I was in the third grade I thought that I was gay, because I could draw, my uncle was, and I kept my room straight,” sang Teddy, exuberant, wild, dancing. “I told my mom, tears rushing down my face, and she’s like: Ben you’ve loved girls since before pre-K,” he cried out, hands high, our family singing ‘Same Love’ along with Macklemore, our favorite rapper, performing live. “Yeah, I guess she had a point,

“Today’s macro carry trades are found in emerging markets, and they’re inevitably cross asset trades,” explained the CIO. These opportunities arise because people who trade equities, foreign exchange, interest rates and commodities don’t really talk to each other; literally and figuratively. Correlations between these markets exists, but no one seems to care. Which creates opportunity. “It’s why in February you bough