anecdotes

“We hit peak hysteria on Feb 11th,” said the CIO. Nine months of fears that the US and China were committing policy errors reached a climax. “If you’d forced investors to write down what would’ve made them bullish on China and emerging market assets, they would have written ‘nothing.’ They felt they had the map, knew the path.” And now here we are – no man’s land. “China pumped $500bln of credit into the system

“Maybe it’s rallying because Europe’s inflation rate is falling even faster than Draghi is cutting interest rates,” he said, searching. The Euro touched 1.0822 shortly after the surprise announcement of vastly expanded stimulus. And then reversed abruptly, powerfully, counter-intuitively. “Perhaps it’s because Draghi said he’s not cutting rates again,” he continued. I considered it. Listened. The Euro blinked quietly

“I reckon a poor man who’s about to become less poor is generally happier than a rich man who’s about to get less rich,” mused the CIO. I smiled, hearing a hint of Charles Dickens, who remarked, “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds, nineteen shillings and six pence, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six pence, result misery.” Australi

“One of my guiding lights is the notion that macro is aggregated micro,” said the CIO. A collage of micro images yields a macro picture. “It’s not a philosophy, it’s the truth.” US consumers hold $100trln of assets, $69trln of which are financial assets, much of which now yield nothing or negative. The rest yield little and GDP growth is slow, even after six years of unprecedented stimulus that pulled future demand (

“We need a resolution in China,” said Eagle, soaring high above Gotham. “Can’t be sure what it is, or when it will happen, but we’ll know it when we see it.” The pressure on China to devalue is building. They can’t ease aggressively without letting the currency go. But a big devaluation risks Beijing’s political credibility. Social stability. “When a system comes under stress, frauds surface. The scale of corruption

“Apologies in advance if I seem unfair,” he said. I smiled, curious. “Your ideas seem, well, consensus, unoriginal.” Nice way to start a conversation. So I apologized in advance if what I was about to ask seemed unfair, “Is it possible to deploy such a large pool of capital to people who invest only in original ideas?” He smiled. There’s no such thing as an original idea. Einstein’s theory of special relativity is th

“Always despised this day,” I said fifteen times. “Distilling a year of my life to a single number made me feel cheap,” I continued, starting each bonus conversation. “In my twenties and thirties, my perspective was narrow. I thought the bonus was my compensation. But at 49, having endured ups and downs, good luck and bad, I’ve discovered real compensation comes in the form of opportunity. Because with opportunity co

“Skill, luck, human frailty,” said the captain, describing the fundamentals of our sport. “Investing is a learned skill, not a born one.” A born skill, like high-jumping, can be improved upon, but only marginally. A learned skill can be advanced without limit. “British cycling is an extraordinary story about transforming ordinary into brilliant with a series of small incremental changes.” Quality coaching, slight imp

“I don’t speak Japanese, I barely speak English,” said the shark, circling Japan. “It’s anti-cultural to ask the things I ask, and be in your face, so it’s helpful I’m full gaijin.” Abe announced a policy to shake up corporate governance a couple years ago. My buddy smelled blood. And redirected his investment activities to shareholder activism. “Corporations went from being overleveraged in 1990 to over-capitalized