anecdotes

“To consider 2016, first review 2015,” said one of the industry’s top performing CIOs, years running. “Seven opportunities mattered; dollar vs low-yielding currencies, dollar vs high-yielding currencies, Greece this summer, German bunds in May/June, selling volatility in late-September, the run-up to the December ECB meeting, and Japan.” Of those seven, four required you to develop a macro view and three required you

“Cliff jumping,” answered Jackson, without hesitation, taking charge. Olivia, Teddy and Charlie cheered. Filling the air with the magic of mischief. I’d asked for ideas. We needed out. Thanksgiving had overwhelmed us. So we piled into the Suburban, in search of sanctuary, solitude. The Greenwich cliffs are hidden deep in back-country. And like so much in today’s wild, they’re forbidden. So we whispered our way throug

“Something true of all inflation targeting regimes is that they’re not set up to find a villain,” said the central banker. We were discussing how things had changed since our last chat, they always do, making forecasts look foolish. In the case of central bankers, such changes would normally open them up to accusations of making policy errors. “Inflation targeting regimes are rightly forward looking, and given variab

“Like it or not, the world functions on a supply of dollars; stock and flow,” he said. “Stock is the amount of dollar debt and its equivalents. Flow is the incremental dollars of GDP created; call that global income.” The stock of debt has never been larger, in both real and nominal terms. But 2015 global GDP, converted into dollars, will contract for the first time since 2009. “The world’s gross balance sheet is big

“When Luka was four, I told his grandfather that soccer wasn’t ever going to be his thing,” said my buddy, an athlete. “He didn’t believe me. He couldn’t accept it. But I had. So I told him to go kick Luka a ball,” he explained, laughing. Grandad quickly concluded Luka should “stick to math.” Which is what he did, does. “As he grew, we spent our weekends exploring NY on the subway. Surfacing to look at monuments, sta

“Wouldn’t you say the Japan experience resembles what’s happening all over the world?” asked the Scandinavian. Global interest rate and growth forecasts have been too high for seven years. “Are we consistently unlucky, or doing something systematically wrong?” continued the CIO. “And during this time, stimulus continually increased; we cut rates lower than forecast, printed money faster, and expanded global debts.” M

“I tell the bad boys to leave my little sister alone,” read the caption. The photograph, two young girls, orphaned street-dwellers, somewhere in Syria. I wandered through Fotografiska, a Stockholm gallery, embarking on my Nordic whirlwind. “Twenty-five thousand, and more come each day,” said the sympathetic statistician in Copenhagen, “In three years, just thirteen percent will find work; we pay for the rest of their

“Experience is helpful, and often an impediment,” he said, just back from Silicon Valley, electrified. “We have very few good businesses in our industry. But those guys out there, they have good businesses.” Uber, Google, Facebook, Palantir; turning grey matter into green paper. He started his firm decades ago, when the entrenched hedge funds looked at investing from the top down. He looked at it from the bottom up.

Out came the fluffer; an enthusiastic economist, frantically arousing the crowded room, bursting with limp Nikkei bulls. “One arrow can be broken,” he cried, snapping a single imaginary shaft with his hands. “Two arrows can be broken,” he teased, breaking them over his knee. “But three arrows?” taunted the economist, unable to break the bundle of arrows, no matter how hard he struggled. We sat, unstirred. You see, th