anecdotes

“Declining productivity rates,” he answered, after a long, thoughtful pause. We’d been discussing the interplay of technology and the global economy, emerging investment trends, themes. I finished by asking a favorite question: What in your world do you find most perplexing? You see, if you want an explanation for what just happened, ask an economist. If you want a forecast, ask a strategist. Explanations and forecas

“No,” said my oldest. And I smiled as we walked; you see, he’s inherited my rage-against-the-machine gene. He’d spent summer training. Hours a day. Every day. Shooting, rebounding, running. And tried out for his favorite club; 3D Lacrosse. They passed on him. So he spent this week agonizing, alone in the yard, shooting in sweaty fury. Preparing to try out for a rival; The Chargers. An unexpected 3D email arrived; a s

I ruled out defunct Norse gods. And medieval fortifications. I’m not remotely smart enough for a Latin name. And every trout stream has been trademarked. Rocks are great, stones too, but investing is a game that requires flexibility, fluidity. Of course, you never want a name that carries the risk of irony; like Phoenix. And perhaps the ultimate irony is to obsess over a name, when building a business is about so muc

“People think the consensus is always wrong; that you make money by being a contrarian,” said the CIO. “Not true.” We were discussing patterns. Because without patterns, we’re lost, adrift in the chaos. Of course, most people seek solace in statistics, frightened by the possibility that there’s no absolute, they quietly ignore the fact that something’s only worth what another’s willing to pay for it. The strength or

“Should have seen it coming, but we’re scientists,” he said. “The first study estimated America faced a 70 gigawatt deficit by 2030 to meet new commercial real-estate needs.” Seven years later they estimated a 30 gigawatt surplus – a 100 gigawatt swing. “Landlords are earth’s cheapest people and have long time horizons. They’re introducing energy-saving efficiencies in old buildings faster than they build new o

“Netscape and all the internet stuff went crazy between 1996 and 1998,” said the CIO. “But extrapolating those trends ad infinitum was insanity and ended with Pets.com.” Investors look for patterns, when they find one they apply it to everything. The process is reflexive; as a pattern repeats, it becomes more widely recognized, thus driving new investment flows to profit from it, which amplifies the trend, and reinfo

“What were you guys talking about?” asked Jackson, as we left the office. My 13yr old had swung by after practice, waiting for a ride home. Instead of answering directly, I asked him what he thought our investment team had been discussing. “You were all trying to figure something out, and it seemed like you kind of did, but it also seemed like you kind of didn’t.” He wasn’t wrong. And sensing an opportunity to explai

“Two BMWs pull up at a traffic light,” he said. “The black person says the white man got rich because of Apartheid. The white man says the black person must be a corrupt civil servant.” He’d flown in from Johannesburg. A freedom fighter turned policy-maker. “They both might be completely wrong, but when the standard stereotype is that everyone who gets ahead does so by underhanded means, it becomes acceptable to get

“Imagine there are two human beings in the world; my father and myself,” he said. “Dad owns a $10mm house, he’s retired with 10yrs to live and needs $1mm per year to pay the bills.” Which apparently marks the poverty line in Greenwich. “So Dad needs to sell the house to me. But there’s a problem; I only make $50k a year.” Of course there’s a way to intermediate that; a third party can lend the son $10mm at 0.1% inter