anecdotes

“Why do people feel that to be a good leader, they must absolutely believe in one direction over another, one path over another, one person over another?” asked the investor, an allocator. “Why do most people feel they have to live in a world of absolutes?” We were discussing the illusion of certainty. “We live in a world filled with questions. And the best traders I’ve known have never been sure of anything.” The bl

“There are two types of macro traders,” said the macro trader. “The first makes money when what’s supposed to happen actually happens,” he continued. “They tend to own emerging markets, the S&P 500. They buy high yield and anything that rolls down a curve.” These strategies are implicitly short volatility; usually a winning proposition. “The second type of macro trader looks for situations where policy makers hav

“Know what I’m grateful for Dad?” asked Jackson (16). We were headed back down the mountain, swiftly, steadily, darkness closing in. “I’m grateful it didn’t happen to Charlie, Teddy, Olivia, or Mom,” he said. Our five-hour climb up Mount Madison had been hard, unexpectedly steep. Charlie barely made it. The summit view stretched across New Hampshire’s presidential range, we relaxed in a mossy shallow, a mountain spri

The future is unknowable. Yet never has capital been so concentrated in strategies that depend on the future closely resembling the past. The most dominant of these strategies requires bonds to rally when stocks fall. For decades, both rose inexorably. And a new array of increasingly complex and illiquid strategies depends on a jump in volatility to be followed by a rapid decline of equal magnitude. They appear uncor

“Why do people call ‘upstate’ New York upstate?” asked my Uber driver, grinding, we all are. “It’s a different country,” I answered. “I always like asking New Yorkers the question, and that’s usually the answer,” he said. Couldn’t quite place his accent, southern but not thick. “I was born upstate, Troy, New York, but never once been back,” I explained, surprised to hear it come out that way, another nomadic American

“I remember imagining what I would’ve said to the police if he’d done something to me, and how it would’ve seemed I was to blame,” said Mara, my wife. “I woke up in a fraternity, still in my bra and underwear.” She’d never told me the story, but the Kavanaugh hearing brought it out. “I’d been at a party. The football team’s quarterback was cute, we kissed. I drank too much. He did too. And it was hot, so we stripped

“Trump represents authenticity,” said the Australian investor, reflecting. “Childish, self-centered, misogynistic, money-focused, bullying, full of shit – but authentically so,” he continued. As an American abroad, you discover most discussions weave their way back to The Donald, what his presidency says about the state of our union, our world, humanity. Nearly every foreigner I meet is appalled. But intrigued, perpl

“I’m fortunate to live in a time where the political system allows my kind of work,” said the Physicist. “Historically, it’s not always so.” Below us particles raced around CERN’s 27km subterranean track, held in precise formation, accelerating toward collision, obliteration, observation. We discussed magic, mysteries, the sublime wonder all around. “It’s incredible that we’ve been able to learn so much about nature,

“The Japanese experience has given investors the incorrect impression that sustained deflation is a likely outcome when it’s instead a unique case,” I explained. We were discussing US inflation, whether it is increasing or decreasing. Shorter-term economic and price trends are inherently volatile, so to examine inflation properly requires greater perspective. Which had brought us to Japan. Implicitly, Japan decided t