anecdotes

“We’re early in the new President’s direction with North Korea,” said the senior military officer, reflecting on his decades of war games and exercises in the Pacific theatre. “We’re changing tactics and it’s pressurizing the situation,” he explained. “The added pressure is causing new reactions.” Kim Jong-Un claimed he was the target of a CIA assassination attempt. That’s an example of the “dear leader” reacting to

“For all of history – prior to 1955 – there was roughly equal probability of inflation or deflation in any given year,” said the economic historian. “But since 1955 we’ve experienced uninterrupted annual inflation. It’s a stunning fact, unprecedented. To an economist in 1955, the coming 60yr inflation would have appeared less probable than a catastrophic meteor impact.” After enduring a series of world wa

“I started out buying private companies at 6x,” he said. “As the years passed, 6x became 8x, then 10x, 12x.” He paused, looking out across Gotham, an island in perpetual motion. “The market is now doing deals at 14x, hoping high multiples remain.” The private equity boom began quietly in the 1980s. The tumultuous 1970s had produced a 7.0 Shiller price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 and 15% 10yr treasury bond y

“The change of change is now negative,” said the CIO. “Global growth is still rising, but the rate of improvement is slowing,” he explained. “Same holds true for global inflation, oil prices, copper, iron ore. Credit growth is slowing in the US, Europe, Japan, China.” If these things were all contracting, we’d plunge into recession, but we’re not there. We’re simply at the point in the cycle where the rate of acceler

“Humans sell low and buy high,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “And in those moments they believe it’s for good reason. It cannot be otherwise.” Snow fell, rain too. Spring on its way. “Bear markets end when every piece of news is seen as an excuse to sell. And bull markets peak when the opposite is true.” Somewhere in the clouds Nasdaq futures were breaching all-time highs, defying the latest Twitter tempest. “The

“Freshman,” said a father in the stands, his buddies all laughed. I did too. “Who’s going to tell that kid this ain’t eighth grade anymore?” I smiled, the outsider. It was Jackson’s first game, and he came out hot. “Kid has no chance in hell to score from that far out until he’s got a 100mph shot,” said another father, certain. “He’s got 85mph at best,” mumbled someone. We all nodded, standing together, reliving high

“You know what I dislike about my own argument?” asked the CIO. “I sound defensive, like I can’t accept I’m wrong.” We all know that guy, and rarely want to be him. “No one ever truly believed in my thesis,” he said, describing it: A growing dominance by the global economic elite shapes policy to deliberately asphyxiate dynamism. Because dynamism and its fraternal twin – volatility – are the only real threats t

“Things come and things go, they rise and fall, it is the same thing all the time,” he said. We looked out across the valley. I’d returned to an old friend, seventh-generation high altitude mountain guide. “Glaciers advance, retreat. You see this yourself, no?” The Glacier d’Argentiere ended in a blue ice tumble, far above where I’d left it in 1998. “Someday they will advance again. Maybe in very many years. Nobody c

“When they laugh at your idea,” said the esteemed investor. “That’s usually a good place to start,” he continued. We were discussing thematic investing. “The first stage of any paradigm shift is a humiliating period for those who see a different future.” There are a wide range of factors that drive investment themes, trends. Of course monetary policy drives many. For reasons we may never fully understand, when centra