Hope all goes well… “It’s like a football game, we’re returning to the field after half-time,” he said, fresh from some face-to-face with Bernanke at SALT. “And while we have no real plan for the third quarter, at least we know we’ll need to hike,” he continued. “But as for the fourth quarter, we know we can’t possibly have a game plan until we see how the third quarter plays out.” After the first rate move, the Fed

“The idea that you pay governments to hold their debt, it’s just crazy,” said Alan Howard, commanding the world’s largest macro fund. And in a flash, what had once been crazy to deny, became crazy to accept. You see, investors have grown to slavishly believe they should own whatever a central bank is buying. Or short whatever they’re printing. But with $3trln of European bonds trading at negative yields, that Emperor

Hope all goes well… “So much information, so little knowledge,” he said, towering atop Wall Street, entrapped in ivory. “No economist knows what’s going on,” he sighed, stunned by +0.2% Q1 GDP. “None of us can explain what happened last quarter, let alone what’ll happen four quarters out.” In the real economy, there are few signs of animal spirits. “What’s the plausible explanation?” he asked, thinking aloud. “I live

“This is not just a problem for the Fed,” said Consigliere, back in DC from a never-ending global tour. “The same problem is faced by the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, HKMA, MAS, and even the PBOC now.” Following the global financial crisis the Fed adopted two objectives; maintaining economic stability (strong growth, full employment and 2% inflation), and financial stability (avoid

Hope all goes well… “Just start talking about anything,” commanded Krakower, the show’s producer. “Let’s talk about Kaminsky’s thong,” winked Scaramucci, flashing a smile to the camera, warming up. I quietly wondered how someone who shies from bright lights ended up on TV. Kaminsky dogged Scaramucci for his Ronald Reagan hairdo. While make-up pulverized us with pretty powder. And some dude, deep in the darkness count

Week-in-Review: Mon: China cuts RRR 100bps (largest cut since 2008), China property developer Kaisa defaults, Kuroda “underlying trend of inflation has improved markedly,” NZ CPI +0.1% yoy, German PPI -1.7% yoy (20th mthly decline), France central banker Noyer “Greek banks could soon run out of ELA collateral,” UK home prices +4.7% yoy, S&P +0.9%; Tue: China’s Tianwei Group defaults, Korean PM offers to resign ov

Hope all goes well… “Jackson dumped Bella,” said my 5yr old to his best friend. “What’s dumped mean?” asked Pierce. “I dunno,” admitted Charlie, embarrassed. “Well it sounds like something you’d do in a pool,” said Pierce. “Pretty sure you can do it anywhere,” replied Charlie, regretting he ever brought it up, turning to me for help, “Daddy, tell Pierce what dumped means.” And the first thing that came to mind was Ch

“There is no Plan-B,” stated Moscovici. Which is in fact Plan-A. Because the only way to maintain Europe’s political construct, despite deep structural flaws and self-inflicted economic handicaps, is by denying member states an exit. Which itself is a flaw. You see, there’s always an exit. From anything. Everything. Though it may not be pretty. Lagarde denied the Greeks a grace period in repaying its IMF debts, tactf

“What is trading about?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “It is not about figuring out market direction,” continued the market’s biggest S&P 500 local. “Trading is about breaking things down. A market moves up or down. Are you comfortable fading that direction, or are you not? Hmmm? Has the market rallied on good news, or the opposite? Was there big volume? Do correlations support the move? Are they changing?” Y

“But in fact, Chase is so good at everything he does that sometimes it can be rather annoying,” said Ryan, laughing, blushing, betraying deep admiration for his teammate. Speaking more to himself, than to our clients; providing a genuine glimpse. We were sitting in the Blue Room, a tranquil space. Discussing our firm, our process, how we communicate, triangulate, collaborate. And the client asked for a description of