Hope all goes well… “Started getting really excited that yields were backing up as stocks were wobbling,” growled Bulldog. “That’s lights out, that’s where everyone gets eaten alive.” On an ageing planet with ample supply, deficient demand, sluggish growth and large debts, a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds would be ruinous. And every professional investor knows it. So having just tasted that trade, why has t

Narendra Modi floated in a sea of terracotta warriors. Marveling at the magnificence of ancient China. And the passage of time. Xi Jinping looked on, proud of his past, hungry for greatness. China’s first Emperor, Qin Shi Huang, was buried with 9,000 protective terracotta soldiers and horses. Which in 2015 AD ranks amongst mankind’s finest treasures, though in 209 BC it was its foremost capital misallocation. But it’

“The paradox, of course, is that anyone driven by insecurity and fear of failure who figures out its horrors then has to overcome the greatest fear of all,” he wrote, in response to last Sunday’s anecdote on insecurity, fear, drive, greatness. “Which is that overcoming a fear of failure might – you never know – be the equivalent of Superman uncovering Kryptonite,” continued the CIO, maintaining a delicate

“The key is to bring out in people the things they don’t realize make them great,” he said. We’d been seated together at one of those dinners, filled with unique folks. And this one spent his career building some of Wall Street’s top performing teams. “Nearly everyone is scared of being really good. They don’t want to fly so high that they get lost. It’s a very rare person who gets right after it, knows they’ve got i

She loaded her weapon. Applied her lipstick. Rehearsed her lines. Global bond markets were imploding. And with yields this low, it’s difficult to put the losses into context. But in two weeks, 10yr German Bund investors lost the equivalent of 29yrs worth of coupon payments. And sure as a fool and his money are soon parted, holders of $4trln of European bonds dizzied themselves in circular references, as their Excel s

Hope all goes well… “It’s like a football game, we’re returning to the field after half-time,” he said, fresh from some face-to-face with Bernanke at SALT. “And while we have no real plan for the third quarter, at least we know we’ll need to hike,” he continued. “But as for the fourth quarter, we know we can’t possibly have a game plan until we see how the third quarter plays out.” After the first rate move, the Fed

“The idea that you pay governments to hold their debt, it’s just crazy,” said Alan Howard, commanding the world’s largest macro fund. And in a flash, what had once been crazy to deny, became crazy to accept. You see, investors have grown to slavishly believe they should own whatever a central bank is buying. Or short whatever they’re printing. But with $3trln of European bonds trading at negative yields, that Emperor

Hope all goes well… “So much information, so little knowledge,” he said, towering atop Wall Street, entrapped in ivory. “No economist knows what’s going on,” he sighed, stunned by +0.2% Q1 GDP. “None of us can explain what happened last quarter, let alone what’ll happen four quarters out.” In the real economy, there are few signs of animal spirits. “What’s the plausible explanation?” he asked, thinking aloud. “I live

“This is not just a problem for the Fed,” said Consigliere, back in DC from a never-ending global tour. “The same problem is faced by the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, HKMA, MAS, and even the PBOC now.” Following the global financial crisis the Fed adopted two objectives; maintaining economic stability (strong growth, full employment and 2% inflation), and financial stability (avoid

Hope all goes well… “Just start talking about anything,” commanded Krakower, the show’s producer. “Let’s talk about Kaminsky’s thong,” winked Scaramucci, flashing a smile to the camera, warming up. I quietly wondered how someone who shies from bright lights ended up on TV. Kaminsky dogged Scaramucci for his Ronald Reagan hairdo. While make-up pulverized us with pretty powder. And some dude, deep in the darkness count