Hope all goes well… Amsterdam. Geneva. Next stop London. And squeezed in between, high altitude. Solitude. A late night walk through the forest. Mont Blanc aglow, reflecting. Recollecting. And recalled an anecdote from my year here. Argentiere. (see below) Back next Sunday, with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China trade surplus record $60bln (imports -19.9% yoy, exports -3.3%), Japan CA surplus Y187bln (trade

Week-in-Review: Mon: China trade surplus record $60bln (imports -19.9% yoy, exports -3.3%), Japan CA surplus Y187bln (trade deficit –Y396bln), UAE/Jordan announce joint ISIS airstrikes, Abbot survives no-confidence vote, Greece’s Tsipras refuses bailout extension, Merkel/Obama meeting (disagree over arming Ukraine), Obama “Won’t extend Iran nuclear deal deadline,” S&P -0.4%; Tue: China CPI 5yr low +0.8% yoy (PPI

Hope all goes well… “You can make money being long or short,” said Road Runner, the market’s top volatility trader. “You just can’t fall in love with a position.” Late Wed, the S&P slipped 20-points on Greece. Then jumped 20 on Thurs. Friday it rallied on a great jobs number but closed lower. “Equity vol prices tell you people remain nervous.” On down-days there’s no scramble for puts. “The oil pop was a bear mar

“We want as little market distortion as possible,” announced the French central banker, a career contortionist. You see, in early March the ECB will create money from the ether, buying bonds, and continue until inflation magically rises to 2%. One-third of Europe’s sovereign debt already trades at negative yields. Because ECB deposit rates are -0.20%. Denmark announced the globe’s 542nd rate cut since Dick fulded Leh

“Ready to start your day right?” asked Mara, a sly smile. I was making coffee, Saturday, back from wandering the world, wondering what was in store. She flipped pancakes, “Breakfast time!” Teddy came in hot, sliding in his socks to a stop. “Let it fly for your father,” said Mara. “You sure?” he asked, eyes sparkling. She nodded. “F… IT ALL, I’M GOING TO HAVE A GREAT DAY!” screamed Teddy, neck veins bulging. I stood t

“Emerging markets obviously need to restructure,” said the CIO, top performer, years running. “The reason lower commodity prices drive the dollar is reflexivity.” As prices fall, emerging market balance sheets get worse, investors flee to the dollar, tightening global liquidity, and driving commodity prices lower still. “No one trusts the balance sheets of anyone other than the US.” Europe has yet to properly recapit

“We can make it cheaper to invest,” said Benoit Coeure, defeated. “But people have to want to invest,” bemoaned the European central banker. “That’s the role of government.” Which is the heart of today’s political paradox: the role of government. You see, Benoit and the boys tried for 6yrs to get European governments to do their job; without asking, what is that job? 40yr old Alexis Tsipras refused the customary Gree

Hope all goes well… “I’m not smart enough for nuance,” said the CIO. “So I focus on the obvious.” The S&P closed the month -3.1%. 10yr yields fell 53bps to 1.64%. 5yr/5yr inflation swaps fell 18bps to 2.12%. “This is so obviously not a risk-on year, January tells you all you need to know.” Volatility jumped across all assets. And in a highly-leveraged world, volatility’s not your friend. “This isn’t a year to buy

The king has died. Long live the dyed king. So no sooner had one 90-year old monarch discovered what comes next, than one of his innumerable 79-year old sickly half-brothers came next; sporting a midnight black goatee. You see, while elderly despots happily rob their young subjects of opportunity, prosperity and dignity, they’ve not yet figured out how to steal youth. So surrounded by sycophants, they pretend and ext

“The rich and powerful always win; that’s the starting point,” said the clear-eyed cynic, more interested in making mountains from molehills, than tilting at windmills. “When upstarts periodically challenge their dominance, buying leveraged assets at wide credit spreads, central bankers throw the economy into recession, bankrupting new money, consolidating and preserving the existing power structure,” he continued. “