“Ready to start your day right?” asked Mara, a sly smile. I was making coffee, Saturday, back from wandering the world, wondering what was in store. She flipped pancakes, “Breakfast time!” Teddy came in hot, sliding in his socks to a stop. “Let it fly for your father,” said Mara. “You sure?” he asked, eyes sparkling. She nodded. “F… IT ALL, I’M GOING TO HAVE A GREAT DAY!” screamed Teddy, neck veins bulging. I stood t

“Emerging markets obviously need to restructure,” said the CIO, top performer, years running. “The reason lower commodity prices drive the dollar is reflexivity.” As prices fall, emerging market balance sheets get worse, investors flee to the dollar, tightening global liquidity, and driving commodity prices lower still. “No one trusts the balance sheets of anyone other than the US.” Europe has yet to properly recapit

“We can make it cheaper to invest,” said Benoit Coeure, defeated. “But people have to want to invest,” bemoaned the European central banker. “That’s the role of government.” Which is the heart of today’s political paradox: the role of government. You see, Benoit and the boys tried for 6yrs to get European governments to do their job; without asking, what is that job? 40yr old Alexis Tsipras refused the customary Gree

Hope all goes well… “I’m not smart enough for nuance,” said the CIO. “So I focus on the obvious.” The S&P closed the month -3.1%. 10yr yields fell 53bps to 1.64%. 5yr/5yr inflation swaps fell 18bps to 2.12%. “This is so obviously not a risk-on year, January tells you all you need to know.” Volatility jumped across all assets. And in a highly-leveraged world, volatility’s not your friend. “This isn’t a year to buy

The king has died. Long live the dyed king. So no sooner had one 90-year old monarch discovered what comes next, than one of his innumerable 79-year old sickly half-brothers came next; sporting a midnight black goatee. You see, while elderly despots happily rob their young subjects of opportunity, prosperity and dignity, they’ve not yet figured out how to steal youth. So surrounded by sycophants, they pretend and ext

“The rich and powerful always win; that’s the starting point,” said the clear-eyed cynic, more interested in making mountains from molehills, than tilting at windmills. “When upstarts periodically challenge their dominance, buying leveraged assets at wide credit spreads, central bankers throw the economy into recession, bankrupting new money, consolidating and preserving the existing power structure,” he continued. “

Hope all goes well… “Know what drives me crazy?” asked the CIO. “When people say a trade is crowded; what does that even mean?” By traditional measures, the short oil trade has been crowded. The long dollar trade too. “If the short Euro trade is so crowded, why can’t it rally for more than a day?” There are times when markets mean revert, and times when they trend. “Speculative systematic traders keep piling on these

Hope all goes well… “How is it that investors are lulled into believing things are not changing?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “When everything’s changing.” Energy, exchange rates, interest rates. “And when markets start changing their nature, why do traders not stay small and nimble?” continued the S&P 500 market’s biggest local. “Why do they cling to their dip buying belief, when deep within their psyche th

“Can we talk Dad?” asked Jackson, serious, solemn. I sat on the couch, curious, prepared for anything. “Can I try out for West Coast Stars again?” he asked, voice strained. He tried out for All-Star lacrosse last January. The rejection letter arrived, he went quiet, retreated to his room. So I sat on his bed, explained how I moved from NYC at twelve, where I’d never played sports. And years behind, suffered the humil

“These days everything’s padded and comes with warning labels,” said Jorgensen, triumphant, tiny, towering above Yosemite. He’d just free climbed El Capitan; once considered impossible. But there is no impossible, there’s only not yet possible. “This just lights a fire under me, and that’s a really exciting way to live,” continued the young alpinist, fingers raw, embracing uncertainty, pursuing extraordinary. You see