Hope all goes well… “The final 15-minutes on Thursday was crazier than October,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Option buyers paid any price.” The vol of vol index (what people pay for VIX options) finished at 141; a wk ago it traded 70. In Oct with the S&P 500 at 1815 it topped at 138. “Perhaps a fund or two are blowing up, or the real S&P move hasn’t happened yet.” But either way,

Hope all goes well… “Chinese A-Shares rallied 22% in 10-days,” he said, atop NYC. As we discussed investor behavior, cultural differences, psychology. Sharing ideas about the year ahead. “There’s more trading in A-Share futures than the S&P 500.” Chinese index volume exploded in recent weeks. “These guys respond instantaneously.” There are no more eager gamblers than Beijing boys. “The Topix has doubled in 2yrs,

“So why are you here, what do you want?” he asked, smiling. I’d arrived early. Having reread his many publications, armed with today’s most interesting questions, hoping he’d challenge my answers. “I want nothing,” I replied. Which was partly true; I didn’t want what most people want. “Well then tell me what your firm does, I’m curious, I only know your writing.” I explained our business, shared my ambitions. “So how

“I’m half-way to achieving our goals,” announced Abe. As Moody’s cut Japan’s credit rating to A1. Citing the difficulty in simultaneously reducing fiscal deficits while fueling growth. Which is the global economy’s first circular reference. Because you can have one or the other, but not both. Unless you devalue your currency and monetize your debt. The Yen fell another 2.4%. 10yr JGB yields fell 1bp to 0.41%. The Nik

Hope all goes well… “Worst race in the world,” answered Osama bin Charlie, disgusted. Jackson took #2 Boy; beaten in the home stretch by some guy named Mack, who having never won much of anything in 45yrs, wasn’t about to let a 12yr old take the Turkey Trophy. Olivia took #2 Girl; three paces behind some hyper-caffeinated Lululemon. Teddy sized up the sorry competition, and tucked himself comfortably within the Top-2

Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s Friday surprise rate cut lifts Asian equities, German Nov IFO +1.5 to 104.7, Weidmann sees high legal hurdle for sovereign bond-buying, Coeure “ECB unanimous on doing more if extra stimulus needed,” Dallas Fed index unch, US defense secretary Hagel to step down, Grand Jury declines to indict Ferguson cop, S&P +0.3%; Tue: Chinese stocks 3yr highs, Kuroda “imperative to restore confiden

“Out with the bold, in with the few!” exclaimed the global head of strategy for America’s mightiest too-big-to-fail affair. “I liked the way that title sounded, but it had one annoying weakness; it meant nothing.” It’s that time of the year again. When Wall Street’s mystics dust off their balls, peer into that polished plastic, and publish prophesies. Just as long as their prognostications don’t offend the sens

Kuroda dropped his kimono. And stepped into the steaming shower. To wash away the anger, the humiliation, and the last remaining trace of economic orthodoxy. He’d cut a secret deal with Abe, sealed it with a Samurai swear. Kuroda held up his end, expanding QE to infinity. But Abe betrayed Bushido; dissolving parliament, delaying the consumption tax hike. April’s 3% increase sparked a 7.3% collapse in Q2 GDP. And desp

Hope all goes well… “I have nothing to say,” he said. “America is headed in one direction, Japan and Europe are headed in another; everything else is a sideshow,” continued the CIO, compounding his capital. “This is not rocket science, it takes no mental horsepower, no subtlety.” It requires an ability to embrace simplicity. “This is the story of Occam’s Razor – never multiply beyond necessity.” Overall: Kuroda dropp

“Spent the whole afternoon talking about hot blondes,” he admitted, sipping a diet coke, sounding lonely, frustrated. And having no idea where he was headed, but happy to ride shotgun, I let him roll. “Everyone blew out in October,” he continued. “They cut all their best ideas; S&P and Nikkei longs, Euro and Yen shorts.” He should know. He’s invested in them all. And watched his fund managers flush their biggest