Hope all goes well… “I went big, hard, I went early,” grunted Bulldog, licking dollar-drool off his chops. “After Jackson Hole, you knew Draghi was finally doing QE,” continued one of our industry’s largest risk-takers. “Now there’s serious divergence between the ECB and Fed – that’s what moves real money.” German 2yrs yield negative 0.07%; an oxymoron. US 2yrs yield 0.57%. That spread’s at a 7yr high. “This kind of

“This is somewhat of an oxymoron,” I admitted, sliding into the world of contradiction as easily as slipping on a pair of old jeans. We were discussing portfolio construction using inexpensive volatility. Which is something we do. But of course, the funny thing about volatility is that it only ever feels cheap when it’s expensive and falling. Which lures punters into the market to pick a low. Who then suffer the deca

“Perhaps that’s what’s going on,” said the central banker, an inquisitive fella, open minded, intrigued by uncertainty. So rather than discussing what we already know, we focused on perplexing puzzles. Like why, in year-six of zero rates and bodacious central bank balance sheets, global growth and inflation still surprise on the downside. “What if what looked like a good economy in 2005 was actually just horrible ove

“A small body of determined spirits, fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission, can alter the course of history,” he said, frail in body, fierce in heart, and powerful beyond imagination. Naturally, he was right. He is right. And inspired by Gandhi’s wisdom, and self-determination victory, it’s no wonder countless aspirants have followed his path. Now, Salmond is no Mahatma. And Alex’s unquenchable faith, like

Hope all goes well… “So why have you come to our little country?” asked the policy maker. And having long ago come to terms with my stupidity, I responded simply. “The biggest answers are often found in the smallest places.” He nodded. “New Zealand is the first G10 nation to hike rates in this cycle,” I continued, “and I wonder whether any developed economy is able to withstand higher rates.” He smiled, and admitted,

“Well, your question is actually something we asked ourselves,” said Draghi, and the young reporter blushed. “But the answer to this question is: would the truth be a risk?” he continued. Which translated from charming-Italian to ugly-American means, “We also asked ourselves, would it be better to lie?” You see, the reporter had asked Mario, whether he worried that by admitting Europe’s chronic decline in both inflat

“I’ve made peace with it,” he said, without emotion. Yet I knew how the admission ate at him. As the Occupy movement emerged from the 2008 crisis, he described with eager optimism his hope for greater justice, equality. He grew up poor, made his way to our finest engineering university, and earned a position atop Wall Street’s proprietary trading elite; standing as testimony to the productive power unleashed by hard

Hope all goes well… “You want to be mentally concerned now, awake, alert,” said the CIO. “But you don’t want to express that concern yet in your portfolio,” he continued, his own portfolio performance well ahead of any index you could compare it to, for years running. “These things are supposed to go way past Red,” he continued. Before real bull markets finally turn, they first ignore all the obvious warning signals.

Hope all goes well… Powerful waves rolled in, lifted by a distant beast. Hurricane Marie, one of those rare Pacific tempests. The day prior had been smooth as glass. Whitewash raced up the beach, exploding on my shins. Stranding vast heaps of kelp and stunned creatures, that, accustomed to summer’s perpetual calm, lacked strong anchors. I looked out as far as I could. Turning a grain of sand over and over, in my head

Week-in-Review: Mon: UAE & Egypt airstrikes on Libyan Islamists, Israel surprise 25bp rate cut, Hollande purges cabinet over left wing revolt, German IFO business climate -1.7pts to 106.3, Spain PPI -0.4% yoy, US July new home sales -2.4%, Dallas Fed -5.6 pts to 7.1%, S&P +0.5%; Tue: Aussie Q2 construction -1.2% (3rd consecutive decline), South Africa Q2 GDP +0.6% (Q1 -0.6%), Ukraine captures Russian paratroo