Hope all goes well… “You could’ve bought as many puts as you wanted,” said Roadrunner – an elusive creature, who’s become the S&P’s biggest volatility trader by avoiding traps. “The Vol never lies.” And leaning on that lesson, he and his flock faded the move. “This is just the beginning, it’s still early, it started with the dollar, now it moves to other markets.” Ever since 2009, it was easy to buy calls when th

“Maybe write something about turning 48,” said Mara. “Write about that Berkeley Hills trail run with your brother, when you thought you had a fatal medical condition,” she continued. “But then realized you were just getting old, outta shape.” I considered it. The idea had some merit. After all, I did really feel like I was going to die. And glimpsing my mortality, swore to god that if only I lived to hear another ope

“When trouble comes up anywhere in the world, they don’t call Beijing,” said Obama. “They don’t call Moscow,” continued America’s commander in chief. “They call us.” Undoubtedly true. “America leads, that’s always the case,” said our President. At which point Europe’s 28 leaders slumped in union. Depressed. Deflated. You see, no one’s ever called. And never will. How could they? Who would they call? But worse yet, Ob

“But I want to be clear: we’re not moving fast enough,” said Obama, chastising world leaders. “We are not doing enough,” continued the President, shuffling papers, buying time, trying to remember what that damned fourth issue was. Certain that it too was emblematic of chronic failure in global policy coordination. You see, he’d already addressed climate change, ISIS, and tax inversions. But no matter, we all draw bla

“Tell you one thing that helps me take risk,” grunted Bulldog, wandering around Greenwich, his wild pack barking in the background. “We feed off each other,” continued one of the industry’s largest, most profitable risk-takers. They roam far and wide, scratching, sniffing. Until one picks up a scent. Then they race off, competing to be fastest, biggest. “Most people wait for prices to really move their way before get

Hope all goes well… I got a beef. You would too if you’d tried to navigate Manhattan all week. As paranoid little dictators from every corner of the planet joined hapless elected leaders at the UN, to discuss matters of existential importance. Like global warming. Which for instance, you contribute to, every time you and your posse of pistol-packing pachyderms take 15 black Escalades 3 blocks to buy a Frappuccino. Or

What the hell? Nothing happened? Seriously? Scotland’s British? Some crappy little concept-country called Catalonia collapsed? The sun rose? Then set? Yup. And that’s not the half of it. Yellen kept her “considerable period” language in the Fed statement. Which means nothing. Don’t believe me? Just ask her, she admitted it, she’s “data dependent.” But still, had she removed “considerable period,” like for real, well,

Hope all goes well… “I went big, hard, I went early,” grunted Bulldog, licking dollar-drool off his chops. “After Jackson Hole, you knew Draghi was finally doing QE,” continued one of our industry’s largest risk-takers. “Now there’s serious divergence between the ECB and Fed – that’s what moves real money.” German 2yrs yield negative 0.07%; an oxymoron. US 2yrs yield 0.57%. That spread’s at a 7yr high. “This kind of

“This is somewhat of an oxymoron,” I admitted, sliding into the world of contradiction as easily as slipping on a pair of old jeans. We were discussing portfolio construction using inexpensive volatility. Which is something we do. But of course, the funny thing about volatility is that it only ever feels cheap when it’s expensive and falling. Which lures punters into the market to pick a low. Who then suffer the deca

“Perhaps that’s what’s going on,” said the central banker, an inquisitive fella, open minded, intrigued by uncertainty. So rather than discussing what we already know, we focused on perplexing puzzles. Like why, in year-six of zero rates and bodacious central bank balance sheets, global growth and inflation still surprise on the downside. “What if what looked like a good economy in 2005 was actually just horrible ove