“Hedge funds don’t have the balls because investors don’t have the balls,” answered the CIO, one of Europe’s top allocators. You see, I’d asked why he thought hedge fund returns have generally sucked ever since 2008. “15 years ago we invested for 5yrs and said ‘go for it,’ but now we say ‘you have 5yrs but we’re going to check on you every 3 days,’” he continued, laughing at himself and his brethren. Back in 2001-02

They expelled three US diplomats. From Caracas. For sabotaging the economy. As if Venezuela didn’t have enough problems. Their stock market fell 2.9%. And in poor Brazil, Moody’s first downgraded the nation, then Petrobas. As that state-owned oil company encounters weak demand by foreign bidders for over-hyped off-shore drilling rights. Eike Batista, saboteur extraordinaire, dyed his wig a darker shade of grey, snuck

“Driverless electric Tesla’s, powered by Google, dispatched by Uber will shuttle people around continuously – the technology already exists, this future is inevitable,” explained the brilliant macro CIO, basking in California’s bright sunlight, whisking me 20yrs forward. Of course, regulations need to catch up. They will. “And annual car sales will collapse from today’s 100mm pace to just 20mm.” You see automobiles a

Hope all goes well… “Think about the guy you’ve hated more than anyone in your entire life,” said the CIO. You see, I’d asked what he thought was really going on in DC. “Now imagine you have him by the balls,” he growled, pausing, giving me a moment. “So here’s the thing, you’re not exactly sure what you want to do next,” he continued in a tone that made me grimace. “But you’re certain of one simple thing – can

Hope all goes well… “Obama’s a bad trader, simple as that,” explained the political insider, breezing through Santa Barbara. “He adds and adds to losing positions, trades without stops.” Apparently, Summers was never ever going to get the votes he needed. And no votes equals no confirmation. Then we moved on to matters of political intrigue, Yellen, exit options, timetables, the difficulty in trading this thing. “Wel

Ben sank his toes deep in the mud. Wiggled ’em around. Picked up a dirty oval stone. Rubbed it clean. Skipped it. Drifting back to his youth. Glorious youth. Without a care in the world; long before he made his big splash, launched his experiment, bought time for the kids in DC. “One could cut monthly purchases for each further 10bp decline in unemployment,” suggested Fed Governor Stein, secretly hoping the pre

“The bond bubble may burst sooner than expected,” said a top-ten portfolio manager, from his Greenwich bunker, with no positions, atop a pile of dry powder. “God help us all,” he continued, chronicling the 20yr serial string of bubbles blown by loose Fed governors. “The bond bubble is the mother of ’em all, 35yrs in the making.” And when something persists for decades, it’s impossible to fully grasp the insidious way

Week-in-Review: Mon: Summers withdraws from Fed race, US/Russia agree on Syria plan, India inflation 6mth high, US IP +0.4% (+2.7% yoy), Cap Util 77.8%, NY Empire -2pts to 6.3, S&P +0.6%; Tue: China FDI falls -0.6% yoy (Jan-Aug FDI +6.4%), RBA retains easing bias, German ZEW 30.6 (9mth high), EU exports firm, UK CPI +2.7 yoy (core 2.-%), US CPI 1.5% yoy (core 1.8%), NAHB homebuilder  sentiment 58 (Nov ’05 h

Hope all goes well… Back from the bush. With all sorts of wild animal tales. You know, they have the most wonderful collective names for beasts in Kruger Park. Of course, there’s a pride of lions; a parade of elephants. Dazzle of zebra. Parliament of wise old owls. A kettle of vultures, circling upward like steam. Crash of rhino. Leap of leopards. An obstinacy of buffalo; back away slowly mate. We chased a pack

“So you Eric are a white man, I am a black man, and imagine he is a colored woman,” instructed the policy maker, pointing to my host (a brilliant young white economist, looking puzzled). “Let us say that being a white man in Johannesburg you earn $100k, being a black man I earn $10k, and being a colored woman she has no job and lives beneath a sheet of plastic – tell me, what do you do?” he asked, turning to me. Now