“So tell me what you think about Japan,” said the CIO of Europe’s greatest mountain of money. I just smiled. ‘Cause we’ve discussed this trade for a yr. He paused. And then filled the silence, “This is what happens when you hit the wall.” Which any ageing, shrinking nation, drowning in debt must eventually do. He’s made his fortune predicting the time and place of horrible car wrecks. “This is the beginning, it will

“Zero chance of an inflationary result,” stated one of London’s top PM’s. “And yeah, I know, nothing’s zero, but this is fucking close,” he continued. “Global debt increased 12% annually since 2002, while GDP rose 4%, and the difference equals roughly $80trln, so that’s what needs to get printed or written down.” Central banks have printed roughly $10trln since the crisis erupted. “So you tell me, is $10trln enough t

The S&P 500 failed near these levels in Jan 2000. Then again in Jul 2007. “It’s taken $1trln deficits each year for the past 4yrs jut to get us back to the highs,” observed one of Europe’s most nimble CIO’s. “There is simply no way the US can sustain these deficits,” he continued. “So I am long stocks now, but the mkt is getting very excited, very long, and yet Apple has sent a rather ominous signal, this may pro

Hope all goes well. You hear the rumor? Yeah, me too. Which makes sense. After all, I started it. So yes, we’re closing Grant Capital Partners. It was ultimately Geoff’s call. Wasn’t an easy one. But we discussed it. He made it. And I support it. Fully. He’s been a terrific partner, a great friend. That’s true for all my partners. Anyhow, we’ve prided ourselves on transparency. So

Hope all goes well. Turned 46 Thurs. No worries, that’s cool, you’ll get me next yr. Mara baked a cake, decorated like a big bulls-eye. With a single candle. Served it up, sporting her most mischievous smile. You see I haven’t exactly been hitting my targets this year. And ever since I returned from stalking deer in the Scottish Highlands, she’s taken every opportunity to remind me that the only track that matters is

“Follow me, do what I do, move how I move, exactly, or he’ll see you, sense us, and be gone,” he hushed, slithering across the steep mountain face, amongst jagged rocks, heather. Gracefully, beautifully. We lay flat. Clothed in tweed. Loading the high-powered rifle. With a single bullet. The muscular 11-point stag stood 100 meters ahead, alert, surveying the terrain. I slowed my breath, smoothed it,

Oh my Ayatollah! Just look at that Rial roll. Yeah, their paper’s really snowballing now. Down 40% in a wk! Souks are silent. Merchants are shuttin’ shop. Hoarding. Hiding. Like they did in 1979, on the eve of revolution. Money-changers were short. But alas, Ahmadinejad insists the Prophet frowns on speculative profit. So he unleashed security services on ’em. Naturally, this ain’t really about prophet, it’s about fa

Hope all goes well. Spent the week walking. Stalking. First in London. Then Scotland. The City’s overrun by bears. Clever ones. Scary ones. Angry ones. They growl the same story; policy response to the global crisis is fundamentally flawed, it can’t work, so it won’t. These beasts are in restless hibernation, conserving energy, biding time. Reluctant to fight the Fed in the open. Till the seasons change, the winds sh

Spent the week walking. Stalking. First in London. Then Scotland. The City’s overrun by bears. Clever ones. Scary ones. Angry ones. They growl the same story; policy response to the global crisis is fundamentally flawed, it can’t work, so it won’t. These beasts are in restless hibernation, conserving energy, biding time. Reluctant to fight the Fed in the open. Till the seasons change, the winds shift. And up in the H

Think you had a tough week? Well, mighta been worse. You coulda been the dude who played Mohammed in that trailer. Yeah, I watched it, along with 15mm bearded kids. Oh my Allah, did it suck. Bad acting, cheap voice-overs, plastic swords, no plot. Even I was offended. Which says a lot. But I’m a glass half-full kinda guy. And recognize the upside potential. You see nothing stimulates the economy like a fight. Wanna pu