Data flow reinforced bearish arguments that as global stimulus fades, developed economies will double dip. A shocking deceleration in Japanese GDP combined with poor Empire State, Philly Fed and unemployment claims data in the US sent strategists scrambling to send their gloomy missives. Global yields continued to collapse, 30yr US inflation breakevens hit 1.9%, Dollar rallied and yet Gold managed to gain 1%. Key cen

Hope all goes well. Off to NY this wk, summer just wouldn’t be summer without a sweaty ride on a 4 Train and a boozy bonfire in South Hampton. Overall: Data flow reinforced bearish arguments that as global stimulus fades, developed economies will double dip. A shocking deceleration in Japanese GDP combined with poor Empire State, Philly Fed and unemployment claims data in the US sent strategists scrambling to send th

Mortgage broker called me with a deal. Said he’d lend me money at 4.35% for 30yrs. “The government is driving rates lower and now’s the time to refinance”, he said. Told him I had a 25yr mortgage, which gave him pause cause most of us who bought in ’05 are squatting these days. Anyhow, let him finish his pitch which amounted to calling me a donkey unless I took his deal. Not my kinda sale, but didn’t want to be a Jac

Hope all goes well. I spent the wk in Canada making new friends. Felt a lot cooler up there than it must’ve for the boys in the Hamptons. Overall: Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass hal

Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass half full fellas crawled out of their shallow graves. Goldman cut their S&P 500 yr-end target to match the prev wk dngrade of their econ forecast.

I’ve got a soft spot for big countries with small populations. They’re great to trade (and fun to visit) but you need to keep an eye on the exit. Australia’s got 7.5 people per sq/mile and Iceland 8 (US 178, China 361, Germany 594). This wk I went to Canada for some treasure hunting; they’ve 9 per sq/mile and I liked ‘em all. Those chilly Quebecois have a lot of fighting spirit: every other home has a swimming pool.

Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, China PMI at 51.2 is awfully close to 50, Russian drought fueled explosive wheat rally, US hm sales plunge

Hope all goes well. Spent the wk in Northern CA and had a few days with Mara and the kiddies. Overall: Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, Chi

Bolinas California is a tiny spot with big ideas. A rural village 1hr north of San Fran, it was overrun in the ‘60’s by brilliant young dropouts. Most stayed, some smoked their way to oblivion, a few changed the world. Bolinas fuses political rebellion, sexual revolution and creative genius all under the banner of “rage against the Machine”; I love it. It’s where Mara grew up and where we drop out now and then. Lucas

Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully boring Monday missives, traders yawned and said “next”. Robust FedEx guidance and weak numbers from Boeing & US Steel swayed mkts; 77% of S&P 500 have beat earnings est (down from 80% prev wk). Econ data turned weak in the US; Durables & Q2 GDP. EU and Asia data was surprisingly firm. Supporting risk assets was a growing sense that rate hikes in Ch