Mortgage broker called me with a deal. Said he’d lend me money at 4.35% for 30yrs. “The government is driving rates lower and now’s the time to refinance”, he said. Told him I had a 25yr mortgage, which gave him pause cause most of us who bought in ’05 are squatting these days. Anyhow, let him finish his pitch which amounted to calling me a donkey unless I took his deal. Not my kinda sale, but didn’t want to be a Jac

Hope all goes well. I spent the wk in Canada making new friends. Felt a lot cooler up there than it must’ve for the boys in the Hamptons. Overall: Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass hal

Risk markets “sold the news” last wk as the Fed’s move to re-invest mortgage proceeds was discounted and left the boy’s asking “what next?” With earnings in the rear-view mirror and the San Fran Fed forecasting a significant risk of recession in the nxt 2yrs, the glass half full fellas crawled out of their shallow graves. Goldman cut their S&P 500 yr-end target to match the prev wk dngrade of their econ forecast.

I’ve got a soft spot for big countries with small populations. They’re great to trade (and fun to visit) but you need to keep an eye on the exit. Australia’s got 7.5 people per sq/mile and Iceland 8 (US 178, China 361, Germany 594). This wk I went to Canada for some treasure hunting; they’ve 9 per sq/mile and I liked ‘em all. Those chilly Quebecois have a lot of fighting spirit: every other home has a swimming pool.

Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, China PMI at 51.2 is awfully close to 50, Russian drought fueled explosive wheat rally, US hm sales plunge

Hope all goes well. Spent the wk in Northern CA and had a few days with Mara and the kiddies. Overall: Lots of bearish chatter and concern over forward looking data this wk (including Obama econ advisor Romer resignation) but risk assets firmed as mkts priced likelihood that the Fed will print money, buy bonds and keep rates low for ages. IP starting to soften in Germany, talk of more Chinese reserve ratio hikes, Chi

Bolinas California is a tiny spot with big ideas. A rural village 1hr north of San Fran, it was overrun in the ‘60’s by brilliant young dropouts. Most stayed, some smoked their way to oblivion, a few changed the world. Bolinas fuses political rebellion, sexual revolution and creative genius all under the banner of “rage against the Machine”; I love it. It’s where Mara grew up and where we drop out now and then. Lucas

Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully boring Monday missives, traders yawned and said “next”. Robust FedEx guidance and weak numbers from Boeing & US Steel swayed mkts; 77% of S&P 500 have beat earnings est (down from 80% prev wk). Econ data turned weak in the US; Durables & Q2 GDP. EU and Asia data was surprisingly firm. Supporting risk assets was a growing sense that rate hikes in Ch

Larry is one of the great American’s. Born a bastard, given up for adoption, he was raised by a Russian Jew who took the surname Ellison in honor of Ellis Island, our welcome mat. Little Larry grew up poor in Chicago, wrote some damn good code, stayed a step ahead of the pack, and now at age 65, the Oracle has a $28bln treasure pile. Never finished college. Made in America. Couldn’t have happened anywhere else. Anyho

Hope all goes well. Consensus is swinging toward low interest rates, low inflation, and grinding rally in risk assets. Been banking some profit into that move. Doesn’t feel like it’s over, just rather be prudent and find new structures with better risk/reward. No shortage of opportunities these days. Truth be told, there never is. Overall: Strategists crunched stress test results, wrote painfully boring Monday missiv