Week #5 of bullish capitulation ends with VIX jumping 5pts. Trench warfare between (1) Greek and Goldman drama plus more China pressure to limit property speculation, and (2) Blow-out earnings and improving global growth leading to rising forecasts for ’10 & ’11. I met 22 investment firms this week and found only one unabashed bull (interestingly he was Chinese). Investors feel the potential downside

Met many very wealthy people this week. Smart, nice, relaxed, successful. Asked many of the foreigners why they’d moved to Switzerland. Taxes came up last. Their children are safe and don’t need body guards in Switz, they have no commute, 10 minute drive to the countryside, life is good and the people in Switzerland are happy. Some had considered NY or London but chose Switzerland. Taxes help too. Damn sh

Overall: Week #5 of bullish capitulation ends with VIX jumping 5pts. Trench warfare between (1) Greek and Goldman drama plus more China pressure to limit property speculation, and (2) Blow-out earnings and improving global growth leading to rising forecasts for ’10 & ’11. I met 22 investment firms this week and found only one unabashed bull (interestingly he was Chinese). Investors feel the potential

Week #4 of bullish capitulation and we seem to be accelerating. Goldman fraud, Greece yields exploding higher, Obama beating on banks with Volker rule. And S&P’s surge to new highs. Betcha guys spend this weekend saying “if we couldn’t get a sell-off this week, we may never get that dip to buy”.  Die hard bears must be suicidal. Sentiment measures show retail investors remain nervous thoug

My friend at one of the biggest real estate families in the US (they have a substantial global footprint) had this perspective to share. The US commercial real estate market has lots of financing issues to work out and it will take a long time still. However, in NYC for instance the cost to buy a building is well below the cost of replacement. If you buy a building in NY for $1000/sqft, you’re buying something

Overall: Week #4 of bullish capitulation and we seem to be accelerating. Goldman fraud, Greece yields exploding higher, Obama beating on banks with Volker rule. And S&P’s surge to new highs. Betcha guys spend this weekend saying “if we couldn’t get a sell-off this week, we may never get that dip to buy”.  Die hard bears must be suicidal. Sentiment measures show retail investors remain nerv

Week #3 of the bullish capitulation got sucker-punched Friday afternoon by Goldman investigation tape-bomb. That and Iceland volcano provides bears two new triggers (out of left field) to sell market. Fri brought a round of salesman/strategist missives calling for 7-10% equity correction – guys still seem eager to call a top.  Goldman news and Obama’s growing push for Bank Reform (see below) could get peo

My brother’s an M&A banker in NY and keeps me in touch with US deal flow. $400bln in committed capital has sat idle for the past 18mths in Private Equity funds paying fees (did you realize there was so much idle cash?). Remember that this gets leveraged. And financing is loosening up with the banks. The PE managers are feeling pressured to put money to work (performance anxiety). Deals are getting done at a

Overall: Week #3 of the bullish capitulation got sucker-punched Friday afternoon by Goldman investigation tape-bomb. That and Iceland volcano provides bears two new triggers (out of left field) to sell market. Fri brought a round of salesman/strategist missives calling for 7-10% equity correction – guys still seem eager to call a top.  Goldman news and Obama’s growing push for Bank Reform (see below) coul