Hope all goes well… Helicopters buzz the football stadium; bank hard then climb. Paratroopers jump, descend, circling, landing in succession, midfield. 4,500 cadets pack the stands, camouflage, mayhem. National anthem, hats off, hands to hearts, cannons, kick off. To my left is a graduate, Class of 1970. All around are us are veterans, season ticket holders. At halftime a POW is honored, pilot, war hero, 1,000+ days

Anecdote: “When I was younger, an M&A titan asked me a question,” said the Chairman. “What is the half-life of a good idea on Wall Street?” he said, motioning to me for an answer. Naturally I shrugged, avoiding humiliation. “One deal,” he said, raising a finger, smiling. The Chairman was sharing his latest read on macro trends, including more evidence of a phase change. Back in early 2021 he and I shared our view

Hope all goes well… “The tenant downstairs wants to take over the whole building,” said the real estate broker. “We’re not moving, we absolutely love our office and have 3yrs left on the lease,” I replied. “The tenant asked if you would consider putting a price on it,” said the broker. Not everything in life has a price, just most things. And good business is about remaining scrappy, always, forever. So we imagined a

Hope all goes well… We laid to rest Ryan and Daisy McRandal’s beatific son Julian Lucas McRandal yesterday. Ryan is my great friend, partner and Deputy CIO. His son, Julian, was nine-years-old and fought a battle with brain cancer, forever inspiring us with his courage and spirit. The day was at once profoundly sad and magnificent. Ryan and Daisy wanted to share an anecdote from the ceremony (see below). Julian’s obi

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from June 2013 about training to win. I take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you again on September 11th with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China cuts 1y Loan Prime Rate 0.05% and 5y LPR 0.15%, China plans $29b in special loans to struggling developers, German year ahead power s

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from June 2013 about flags, colors, policy, politics. Written during the Taper Tantrum, a time that rhymes with QT (see below). I take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: PBOC cuts 1y MLF rate 10bps (unexp) in response to much

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2021 about finding nobility in great struggles (see below). I take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US Senate passes $739b climate/healthcare/tax deal – the Inflation Reduction Act – revives Biden’s agenda, China extend

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2014 about a natural law that defies physics (see below). It has been fun to watch Marcel work with Mara on weekend notes for the month of July. We all take August off from writing to recharge, read, roam. Hoping the same for you and your crew. See you in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Ukraine’s first grain shipment sinc

Anecdote: “One pound of uranium is worth about three million pounds of coal or oil,” James Lovelock shoveled to his audience in support of nuclear. It isn’t a conventional stance for an environmentalist. The interest of innovators is never in convention, but in truth. And the truth can hurt, often ridiculed before accepted. Working with NASA on a Mars mission in 1961, Lovelock was disappointed in his biology colleagu

Hope all goes well…Marcel Kasumovich, our Head of Research, takes the pen on wknd notes, the last one before One River takes our August break from writing. Scientist James Lovelock inspires a theme of innovation and optimism. Overall: “Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically indefensible,” former Treasury Secretary Summers lamented. “There is no conceivable way that a 2.5% interest rate, in an eco