Hope all goes well… We fielded so many calls this week on both UST and Coinbase that we decided to publish our analysis/perspective in a market note [click here]. The synopsis: Everyone is asking us. Is stablecoin a systemic risk? No. Are assets at Coinbase secure? Yes. Digital assets are demonstrating resiliency. But market pressures also demand accelerated regulatory clarity. We see regulatory principles being agno

Anecdote: “The pandemic catapulted us into a new policy paradigm,” I said. The allocator had asked for a tight explanation of what to expect from markets, policy, politics. “Monetary policy dominance ended in the pandemic, replaced by fiscal policy dominance,” I said. “So far, monetary/fiscal have been cojoined; the Fed buying bonds to finance government deficits. This shifted us to a higher and more volatile inflati

Hope all goes well… “For as long as we’ve been trading, every time stocks fell hard, you knew they’d step in and cut rates,” said the CIO, describing the Fed Put. “But with the kind of inflation we’re seeing now, there’s no way the Fed can cut rates just because stocks fall,” he said. “Even if the S&P were to puke 25% in a week or two, the best you could hope for from the Fed is some kind of statement saying they

The more you think about money, the less it makes sense. That is why the topic is so alluring for the masochists amongst us, attempting to solve the unsolvable, climb the unclimbable, conquer the unconquerable. We engineer thought experiments and mental models in the hope of gaining a glimpse of some truth, the scent of something real, a money-making opportunity. Japan provides an enigma to explore. It once had a bub

Hope all goes well… “Are you asking what allocation I think our plan should make, or what percentage of my net worth I’ve invested?” asked so many of the largest money managers in Asia and Australia that I lost count. “I’m asking what percentage of your personal wealth you have allocated to digital assets,” I would respond, clarifying, city-to-city, back-to-back meetings. Their answers ranged from 0%-20% with almost

Hope all goes well… “So let me tell you how this goes,” said the senior mid-fielder to Jackson the night before the Army/Navy lacrosse game. “The first ten minutes is not lacrosse, it’s not even football, it’s just this insanely intense period with everyone trying to take one another out,” he continued, mentoring my son. “Ten minutes in, one team calls a timeout, both coaches calm everyone down, and that’s when the l

Mara: “Maybe write something about how full life is,” said Mara, Saturday evening. I was racing to catch a flight to Singapore after the Army/Navy game, knowing I’d be reading/writing all-night. The week had been insane, they all are these days. Markets, business, deals, family, friends. The pressure to publish, my burden, a blessing. It’s all good, great in fact. “Life won’t always be this full, but right now it is,

Hope all goes well… “This old paramedic waved me away and yelled — Get me a man, someone strong, I need help immediately,” said Olivia, my 18-year-old, a certified EMT, a volunteer first-responder. “He’s the most sexist of all the guys I have to deal with. I looked him in the eye and said — Don’t worry, I got this,” continued Liv, recounting her latest 911 emergency call. “After we lifted the patient onto

Anecdote: “The hope is that these cracks will turn into chasms,” said Dr. Mitesh Patel of Imperial College, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physics. “And eventually we will see some spectacular signature that not only confirms that the Standard Model has broken down as a description of nature, but also give us a new direction to help us understand what we are seeing and what the new physics theory looks li

Hope all goes well… “My massive bias is to believe things always work out okay,” said Simplicity, walking Occam’s Razor. “But today somehow feels unique, and when I look at supply and demand in oil, grains, base metals too, there’s an undeniable tail risk here,” he said, having analyzed the fundamentals of such things over a long career. “Without a perfect North American growing season, there will be shortages, perha