Hope all goes well… “Are you watching Ukraine’s President?” asked Jackson, in uniform, Facetime. We all are – the whole world. And I wonder how Zelensky’s remarkable behavior will inspire our children as they come into their own, forming ideas about how they’ll lead their lives, set the bar for themselves, and what they will demand of their leaders, as they build a better future for us all. “Zelensky is what re

“The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking — it cannot be changed without changing our thinking,” wrote Einstein. Like much of his work, it contains many layers. And as with all things profound, the observation is timeless. Einstein helps us understand how we can have such deeply divided nations. They are in fact different realities, created by their respective inhabitants, as vivid to one group as

Hope all goes well… “So will they change all the maps now Dad?” asked Charlie. “Too soon to say at this stage, wars are notoriously unpredictable, and this one just started,” I explained. “Okay, but if Russia conquers Ukraine, will they just change the maps,” he asked, not yet freed from the illusion of certainty, stability. “Borders are always changing Charlie, especially in Europe. It’s the bloodiest place on earth

Anecdote: “This is many years in the making, decades,” said the CIO, an extraordinary strategic thinker I respect deeply. “The forces now in play are self-reinforcing, trending toward an extreme event.” Los Angeles sprawled before us, beyond it, the Pacific, a hazy blue, timeless. “There is a bloodlust that is brewing within the mob, and these things are ultimately satisfied, you see it repeatedly though history.” Fa

Hope all goes well… “Miami’s yachts are way bigger than a few years ago,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone. “And it’s getting crowded on the water,” he said. “All my boys say this isn’t 2008, we still got time.” Like in 2007. “But things are feeling weird to Biggie,” said Too, sliding comfortably into 3rd person, like a warm bubble bath. “We been here, seen this, like right before the pandemic, like when we all were s

Hope all goes well… “Tell the ones you love, you love them / Teach only what you know / And oh, you better know it well.” Charlie and I driving, analyzing music, the beauty of lyrics. Silver Linings by Mt. Joy is my latest favorite. A song about overcoming addiction, owning our failings, turning them to strengths, swinging hard at life, unafraid. We listened over and over, as we always do, line by line, OCD, explorin

Hope all goes well… “Average hourly earnings ran at a +9.2% annualized pace in Friday’s employment report,” said the Oracle. “On a three-month annualized pace, wages grew +7.0%,” he said, alone in the desert. “For those hoping that the US will avoid a wage-price spiral, this report was no Quaalude.” But the past was not what I’d called to explore. Of all my sources, only the Oracle foresaw 7% inflation back in early

I had written something intentionally provocative. About a theory most traditional economists despise, yet few understand. Modern Monetary Theory. And took great care to capture its essence, succinctly, stripped of my bias. Easier said than done. To examine a matter, requires that we observe it from many angles. But to properly examine a thing, we must also consider the observer. The former is simpler than the latter

Anecdote: “We are only halfway done in terms of shifting economic thinking from a flawed model,” said Warren Mosler. “While we are no longer obsessed with a false notion that the federal government will run out of money, we still misunderstand the fundamental relationship between interest rates and inflation,” he said. “Our central bankers and the armies of economists who cling to decades of failed orthodoxy continue

Hope all goes well… “The Fed bought $130bln of bonds so far this year. And global central banks bought $300bln already,” said Biggie Too, global chief strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “We have a rate shock, yet they’re still doing QE,” bellowed Biggie. “There really are just two camps now: sheepish equity longs and stubborn equity longs,” he barked. “So you gonna buy 30yr treasuries with 7