“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak,” whispered Xi to himself, refocusing on Sun Tzu wisdom, pushing Lao Tzu to the far recesses of his rattled mind. Xi recognized the near impossibility of his renminbi overtaking the US dollar, and yet there is value in having so many people believe this is his plan. The world’s nations hold $7.1trln in official US dollar reserves (22.7x the world’s $312bl

Hope all goes well… “Is it your intention to ban or limit the use of cryptocurrencies, like we’re seeing in China?” asked Ted Budd, Republican congressman from North Carolina. “No,” replied Fed Chairman Jay Powell. “No intention to ban them?” asked Budd again. “No intention to ban them, but stablecoins are like money market funds, they’re like bank deposits; they’re to some extent outside the regulatory perimeter, an

Anecdote: “I’m stressed Dad,” said Jackson, nearly twenty-years-old, preparing for mid-terms. I smiled, hearing in his voice the story of my life. “Stress is okay, drowning isn’t. Which is it?” I asked. “Let me put it this way, my easiest classes are Calc 3 and Physics.” I laughed, couldn’t help it. “What’s your favorite class?” I asked. “Matrix Theory for sure. My professor is awesome.” Jackson and I discussed Matri

Hope all goes well… “When you and I grew up, half the world was covered in communism,” said the CIO. “Global markets and international business provided the keys to liberate the human potential stifled by that system,” he continued. “When we started in the business, there weren’t vast pools of human capital moving piles of paper. But those days are done.” Too much of society has become financialized, optimized. Such

Anecdote: “There are numerous ways to look at current circumstances in an area of change,” said the Chairman. “When analyzing an area, it’s helpful to consider at least a few, and explore how we develop our various opinions,” he continued. “What we often discover is that our perspectives are path dependent. How we got here, dominates how we view the future.” We were discussing blockchain technology, its power to tran

Hope all goes well… “The #Inspiration4 launch is one outcome of our nation’s partnership with private industry,” tweeted NASA’s deputy administrator, Musk’s rocket racing into orbit. “Creating a sustainable economy in low-Earth orbit including commercial transportation to space for people & crew and commercial space stations is critical to our future on Earth & in space.” Half a world away, China’s astronauts

The Case for Quantum Change Change is the great constant in human existence. And yet, for reasons we will perhaps never fully understand, we seek its opposite – stability – a state that does not exist. In fact, stability is the one thing we cannot have no matter how hard we strive to secure it. All we can hope to attain is the illusion, so we conjure it, and shelter within. Even still, change finds us, we

Hope all goes well… Been working on a longer form piece about the extraordinary environment we are entering and the investment strategies to exploit the change ahead. It is titled: The Case for Quantum Change. You’ll find it attached and I also sent it in a separate email. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US holiday – quiet markets, China sends 19 aircraft into Taiwan air space, coup in G

Hope all goes well… I take late summer off from writing weekend notes. Reading more, recharging. And been working on a longer form piece for next Sunday, exploring the wild decade ahead. But in the meantime, I dusted off an old anecdote about building trust, its centrality to everything truly important (see below). Enjoy your Labor Day weekend. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Energy pric

Hope all goes well… I take late summer off from writing weekend notes. Reading more, recharging. In the meantime, dusted off a piece I wrote in early January, to capture the enormity of what is now unfolding. And as One River races, evolving, advancing, embracing the uncertainty and opportunity that materializes in periods of great change, it felt right to re-publish The Case for Digital Assets (see below). All the b