Hope all goes well… “Okay, so now please explain how these things are going to change the world,” asked the CIO. He was not referring to the global transition to monetary/fiscal policy coordination which will interact with political, social and geopolitical forces to create a future quite unlike our recent past. We had already discussed that. He was asking about digital assets, blockchain, tokenization. Virtualizatio

“The 19th century was defined by the formation of nation states. The US had just emerged from its UK ties, the treaty of Vienna created countries such as the Netherlands, France just had its revolution and rid itself of Napoleon, Germany unified and Italy became a nation state,” said the Dutchman, a private investor, his fortune built in the markets, trade, finance. “The 20th century was the era of the establishment

Hope all goes well… “April 5th is our day!” texted Mara, having locked down our upcoming vaccine date. And marveling at how long this thing has dragged on, I went back to my opening paragraph from April 5, 2020. A pandemic time capsule: “Hey, look who it is!” said Jackson, feigning surprise. “Whoa, it’s Dad!” said Charlie, facetious. Teddy and Olivia laughed; it has become the running joke. Three weeks into isolation

“The state of the world is always evolving,” said Beltway. “The set of possible futures is continually changing,” he said, a prominent economist, advising administrations. “And sometimes, a new potentiality appears in our peripheral vision, something that is either entirely novel or resembles a previous period in history that is so distant that its return would be a shock.” In the background, a new administration rac

Hope all goes well… “So let me get this straight Dad,” said Charlie, jogging, the road icy, dark outside. “In normal families, when you don’t clean your room, you say sorry Mom,” he said. I agreed, running with my youngest two boys, our latest 5:30am ritual. “But in our crazy family, when you don’t clean your room, you have to run 150 miles in 50 days,” he said, laughing at the injustice of it, but always game for a

“Faith, cynicism, skepticism,” said the CIO. “The faithful believe in something, cynics believe in nothing, skeptics find the balance,” he continued. “Western society was built on a foundation of healthy skepticism, and this is quite clearly being lost. It is easiest to observe in Washington which makes sense because the political costs of polarization in today’s world are declining,” he said. “We increasingly see th

Hope all goes well… “Congratulations to NASA and everyone whose hard work made Perseverance’s historic landing possible,” said Joe Biden, pointing to Mars, an inhospitable planet that once supported oceans, lakes, a rich atmosphere, possibly life. “Today proved once again that with the power of science and American ingenuity, nothing is beyond the realm of possibility,” boasted our President, 14mm Texans without clea

Hope all goes well… Zipped down to Annapolis for Jackson’s first college lacrosse game. Brought me back to an anecdote from 2013 about blocking out noise, focusing on the process (see below). See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Myanmar imposes martial law, Tesla announces $1.5bln bitcoin purchase (bitcoin prices hit new all-time highs), South Africa halts AZ va

“If I guaranteed to pay you for five years, eliminating the pressure to deliver quick results, and let you explore any corner of finance for a way to make money, let’s say with a 1.5 Sharpe, where would you start?” I asked, certain I already knew. He unsurprisingly answered, “I’d scan the market and look for things that have been working. Then I’d explore ways to enhance those sources of alpha and apply those strateg

Hope all goes well… “I was looking through reddit chatrooms, wallstreetbets, you know,” said the PM. “Kind of felt surprised by the chatter. I didn’t realize how many people out there understand the extent of the Fed market manipulation that occurred over the past year. Ever since 2008 really,” he continued. “Not sure why it grabbed me. I suppose I’ve just been under this illusion that it’s mostly people in our indus