Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote from 2017 about revolutions and the treacherous path we’re on (see below). See you at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Beijing regulators to allow insurance companies to own more stock (Chinese equities +2.6%), Ja

Hope all goes well… I take a break from writing each summer, to catch up on reading, recharge, seek solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an anecdote I wrote in Dec 2017 about learning to take a profit, a lesson learned in 1992. See you at the end of August. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: WHO announces 230k record global Covid cases, Singapore Q2 GDP -41% (construction -95.6%),

Hope all goes well… A Golden Eagle took up residence here as Jackson left for Annapolis. He’s our first to leave the nest, his great adventure beckons. Plebe Summer marks its dramatic beginning. Charlie shaved his head in solidarity, desperately missing his big brother. He and I now search treetops for the magnificent creature, our Golden Eagle, our good omen, his wingspan over six feet. He perches on bare branches,

ACentral bankers are generally the worst. But politicians are also terrible, and they’re not alone, we all find it profoundly difficult to admit we’re wrong. We’re human. That said, those investors who survive a few cycles develop the ability to face mistakes, change their minds, and act accordingly. Traders learn to do the same, just more frequently, and thus come across as frustratingly non-committal. In all of tho

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from September 2017 on experience and introspection, mankind and machine. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China passes new national security law for HK, NYT reports Russia paid Taliban to kill US troops and Trump knew but did not respond (White House denies report), S&P +1.5%; Tue: HK police arrest 30 pro-democ

A transition has begun. They have always happened and forever will. In the forty-three years since the 1977 Reform Act, the Fed has had relatively simple marching orders; maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. It chose to interpret this mandate and execute it in a way that dramatically increased America’s debt and leverage while suppressing economic and market volatility. But humani

Hope all goes well… “Wall Street is way bigger than the economy,” bellowed Biggie Too. “Love us or hate us, but if we go up in flames, the real economy gets smoked,” added the chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “That happens and you’ll need tanks to maintain order,” barked Biggie. “America is the world’s greatest emerging market – more like Brazil than Germany – young, imm

“Here’s the trap that people in our field fall into,” explained the endowment CIO. “You get sucked into the idea that you need to have higher returns today,” he continued. “But that of course is not the objective – what you need is a particular return, on average, over a long number of years.” For the past few decades, in every recession, the Fed aggressively lowered interest rates, spurring an explosion of debt and

Hope all goes well… “It’s health and politics versus liquidity and policy,” said the CIO. “The latter is dominating,” he added. “A global $10trln economic hole has so far been filled. But you can’t tell if we’ve bridged the chasm or not – we’re fogged in.” Continuing unemployment claims exceeded 20mm for the 7th week, capacity utilization is 64.8% (1.9 points below the GFC trough), yet monthly retail sales surged a r

AAbolish is an extraordinary word whose use is on the rise. To abolish means to do away with, put an end to, annul, make void. It’s used when people grow tired of attempts to reform, when entrenched interests are unwilling to lighten their grip, or when there’s simply no middle ground, like with slavery, which was abolished at various times in different nations. America was shamefully late to end the enslavement of o