Hope all goes well… “The administration wrestled with what to do,” said Mara. “A speech seemed out of place, perhaps a minute of silence before the game was better, they were unsure.” On Dec 14th, 2012 a shooter entered Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown with an assault rifle, 10 high-capacity clips. He slaughtered 20 children, 6 adults. America did nothing. “It’s right to honor them with a minute of silence,” said Jac

A“I’m having so much fun,” said one of our industry’s greatest, eyes alight. “I’m at that point in life where I do nothing out of a sense of obligation,” he added. “I explore whatever interests me, supported by an intelligent, passionate team and an abundance of data.” We were discussing the world, building meaningful relationships, lives of purpose, businesses. “When it appears that no data exists, they scour ancien

A“The great illusion in the last cycle was an insane notion that home prices can never fall on a national basis,” said the CIO. “In this cycle, it is that illiquid investments are superior to liquid investments,” he said. “It may be true that allocating heavily to private equity allows certain investors to hold on to their jobs by enabling them to leverage equity exposure and mark it in ways that make the investment

Hope all goes well… Me: Whatcha looking at out there? Charlie (10): A bird hiding up in that tree – do you see it? Me: I’m basically blind little man. Charlie: What are we going to do today? Me: Saturdays feel empty now that our football season is over, right? Charlie: Well, we could meditate together, then read some newspapers at the coffee shop to free up tomorrow for watching football. Me: Love that plan – y

Hope all goes well… Dusted off a Thanksgiving anecdote from 2015 about not overthinking things (see below). See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Hong Kong pro-democracy candidates win 90% of seats in local elections (record 71% of eligible voters went to polls), Japan to consider increasing 40yr bond issuance, UN describes future as “bleak” as atmospheric greenh

We were playing the game called Institutional Investor. Winners develop an equation to produce +7.5% returns in perpetuity. All other players declare insolvency. Beginners play backwards through time, everyone wins, participation trophies abound. They simply average long-term historical equity and bond returns, combine them in any ratio, and can’t help but hit +7.5%. The advanced game is played in real time, requirin

Hope all goes well… “If I were one of the football players, I’d have been sad,” said Charlie (10), staring out the window, driving home from the Harvard/Yale game. Eco activists took the field at half-time, and 30mins later we left. “If I were a protester, I’d be happy, because they obviously care about the environment and so many other students joined them, lots of kids too, it was pretty cool,” he said. A core grou

Avoiding RMB: Goldman sold a 4% stake in Taikang Life. Allianz paid them 800mm euros, valuing Taikang at E20bln. Goldman bought its Taikang stake in 2010 from AXA at a E7bln valuation. AXA inherited Taikang in its 2006 acquisition of Swiss insurer Winterthur (Credit Suisse subsidiary). Winterthur bought its Taikang stake in 2000 alongside Softbank and GSIC. The buyers/sellers have flipped Taikang shares in dollars/eu

Hope all goes well… “My team stopped using WhatsApp,” he said. “Started communicating on Telegram – messages disappear,” he said. “Burner phones are the most secure.” We were discussing HK. I forwarded some tweets from @HuXijin_GT, my source for insight into how Beijing wants to portray the protests. Video clips show thugs beating a young woman, a cop under siege fires point blank in legitimate self-defense, a middle

A“We move slowly here,” said the executive, chain smoking Seven Stars. “We have refined the art of flawless production,” he explained. “But there was a time when it was not so.” Two Asahi Extra Dry’s arrived, the thick foam head in each glass identical, poured deliberately, in perfect proportion, beautiful beer. “We once copied the chemical compounds designed in America,” he admitted. “As we amassed knowledge, we dev