Hope all goes well… “The bubble is beginning,” bellowed Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too-Big-To-Fail affairs. “The Fed’s going to cut rates when it shouldn’t,” he barked. Global Trade War thumped in Biggie’s headphones. The beat rhymed with that 1998 tune, Long Term Capital. “This is the start of the dollar collapse,” said Too. “This is the start of inflation — that’s what gold a

“Their methods continue to grow in sophistication,” said the engineer. “They collect data exhaust – your emails, chats, phone records, who you called, how long you spoke, your trades, what time you transacted, how you sized each relative position in your portfolio, and so on,” he said. We were discussing advances in Alpha Capture strategies employed by the industry’s large quantitative firms. “They also pay Wal

Hope all goes well… “We’re learning how to deliver a baby Dad,” said my daughter, 15. “Of course you are Olivia,” I said, no longer amazed. “We train on a robot that screams, moans, has contractions, and if all goes well, out comes a baby.” Olivia joined our town’s first-responders program – Post 53. In headquarters hang photos of their many proud deliveries. “What happens if the baby’s breech?” I asked, imagining th

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from Feb 4th, 2018 on myths, manias, illusions, delusions (see below). Have a wonderful Memorial Day. And see you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China threatens to retaliate for America’s Huawei restrictions, Japan Q1 GDP jumps +2.1% (exp -0.2%), Japan Q1 exports -2.4% (imports -4.6%), Aussie conservatives win surprise elec

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from five years ago about China, America, what the world needs (see below). Mara and I blew out of Dodge this weekend. Left behind our four kids, two dogs, nine chickens, two turtles, a rabbit, two lacrosse tournaments, a Jazz concert, junior prom, countless carpools, the utter fiasco we call our routine life, and my writing. What a great few days we’ve had! Wishing the same

Proxy: The worst combat since the 2014 war left 4 Israelis and 22 Palestinians dead last week. The latter launched missiles from Gaza into Israel. The former retaliated. One is supported politically/financially by China. The other by America. Of course, it all unfolded in the run up to the latest Beijing/US trade negotiations. On cue, Iran threatened US forces in response to our sanctions against a nation that suppli

Hope all goes well… “Fed overtightened,” bellowed Biggie Too, global chief strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “Tech spending is rolling over, ISM was a shocker.” In the background, a steady rhythm of tariffs and trade thumped, traders bouncing to the beat. “Investors were thinking that with Beijing’s stimulus, the rest of the world would catch the US. But that didn’t happen, everyone’s slowi

Hope all goes well… “The economy is roaring,” said Vice President Pence, unemployment having just hit a 50yr low of 3.6%. “The President is very interested in bringing fresh ideas to the Fed. People with a renewed and fresh perspective. People who understand the dynamic approach to this economy that he’s been putting into practice,” he said. “When I was in congress, we had a debate about the Fed’s dual mandate. It mi

A“This next phase will require real vision,” said Lithium, handsfree on Highway One. “Getting here, to a place where Tesla, Uber, Lyft and their ilk are selling lots of stuff while burning through billions was a forecastable thing,” he explained. “If you had predicted 5yrs ago that Uber would have 4mm drivers, at a loss of $4bln per year, and people were going to love it, the only true foresight would’ve been that pe

He’d always liked to walk. Admiring a world in constant flux. And while no single moment is ever the same, there are times when the pace of change from one day to the next simply takes your breath away. Mid-spring offers at least a few such days every year. Autumn too. And the first snow. In between are long stretches where the world changes so subtly as to appear at a standstill. The same applies to our view of one