AThe ocean was glass. Stars ablaze. We were a full day’s journey from land, not a sign of urban glow. A lantern hung above the card table at stern. We huddled below it, playing cards. Ten good friends, 1995. The first six days were spent diving, exploring the inner reef, a magnificent place, filled with prey, predators, darting, dancing in the shallows. But like all adventures, new had become old, so onward we pushed

Hope all goes well… “When you’re a goalie, you have a choice,” I said. Charlie nodded, focused on the field. “You can stay in the goal or leave it.” He nodded. “If you choose to leave goal, you must fully commit.” Lacrosse season again, my youngest is nine. “So what exactly does that mean Dad?” I stood behind goal, coaching, the opposing team advancing. “It means if you leave goal, you absolutely must get the ball, o

“See that hotel?” I asked the kids, driving. They unentangled themselves from iPads. In the distance was a sprawling relic, nestled in New Hampshire’s vast wild. “It’s one of the world’s most historic places – The Mount Washington Hotel, in Bretton Woods.” Charlie asked for the story. In the closing year of World War II, we knew we’d win. With the rest of the globe demolished, destitute, desperate, we’d have fr

Hope all goes well… “Significant monetary policy stimulus will continue to be provided by forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the re-investments of the sizable stock of acquired assets and the new series of TLTROs,” said Mario Draghi, tightening his neck brace and abruptly throwing Europe’s central bank into reverse. Just 2mths after ending 4yrs of quantitative easing, Europe’s central bank

“A bear market followed by a swift recovery doesn’t concern us,” explained the CIO, high atop an Australian money mountain. “What worries us is a decline that’s not followed by a recovery.” We were discussing risks his savers face as they approach retirement. “Even a modest market decline late in their saving years can have a major impact on retirement. In fact, a sideways market would really hurt.” Australian and US

Hope all goes well… “I’m in China every month,” said the CIO, a traveler, well-connected, seasoned, relentless. “And I don’t know,” he said. “The Chinese who move to the US think they know,” he said. “But they don’t.” We were watching Manchester United vs Liverpool, late-night in Singapore. A crowded bar, eclectic mix of East and West. “You Americans and Europeans watch, read, study, and think you know,” he said. “Yo

“A lot of alpha players are out there looking for big footprints,” said Sasquatch, hiding in plain sight, making his way through Manhattan. “You need to invest enormous resource into trade execution,” he explained as we walked, stepping carefully. “If you’re even the slightest bit sloppy, you get eaten alive.” As assets concentrate into a smaller number of hulking managers, funds, ETFs and indexes, the impact of thei

Hope all goes well… “It’s time,” said Mara. The family agreed. Even Teddy, and he counted most, Scarlett was his lovely chicken. She ranked lowest in the coup’s pecking order, had fallen ill, infected, then things got really ugly. The humanitarian moment had arrived. “Well, good luck with that,” I said, motioning to Mara. “Oh no, this is a Daddy job,” she said, the kids nodding. So I grabbed Jackson, a hatchet, shove

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 on what led to today’s growing backlash against inequality, injustice. Enjoy your long weekend. I’m celebrating President’s Day, looking out at Mount Washington with Mara and the crew. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: US/China trade talks resume, Chinese stocks hit 4mth highs (had been closed all last week),

Hope all goes well… “I wonder how long before the market internalizes this?” asked the CIO, as much to himself as to me. We were discussing Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which has captured the popular political imagination, as they race to address inequality with a range of new programs, just as the enormity of our government’s mountain of unfunded liabilities comes into view. “It will attenuate the bond-equity correl