Hope all goes well… “I’m not bothered by the government shutdown,” said the investor. “I feel for the people directly affected, but it won’t last forever. And besides, if you shut the government two months of every year, I bet we discover how to make it more efficient,” he continued. “And I’m guessing Trump wants a deal with China, so I’m not overly bothered by that. I’m more worried about how the market trades after

Hope all goes well… “Abandoned babies in the streets,” bellowed Biggie Too. “Crawling around crying about this and that,” continued the Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “They’re screaming – the economy is slowing, GE is going broke, Mommy, Mommy, where you at?” barked Biggie, in baritone. The Dec 19th Powell comments left everyone scared our Fed Chairman is another V

“General Mattis retired in 2013 with four stars, worked in academia, and was recalled to serve President Trump as secretary of defense. He gained a reputation as the most independent, and best, of the president’s cabinet officers, serving as a reassuring bulwark to America’s allies who sometimes questioned the president’s commitment to fighting common enemies,” wrote the Army officer. “The reputation Mattis earned fo

“The problem they face is that inflation will increase their liabilities while simultaneously deflating the valuations of their assets,” said Eric. We were discussing the unenviable plight of pensions and endowments in a world of rising prices — their cost of living adjustments and operating budget increases. “But the status quo won’t deliver the 7.5% returns they require, and deflation will devastate their por

Hope all goes well… Wishing you and your family a happy, healthy, prosperous new year. As you know, I take late-Dec off from writing. Lindsay Politi has stepped in. She is launching a fund focused on emerging opportunities in inflation-related markets that will complement One River’s existing Long Volatility and Systematic Trend funds. We see the world in a period of major economic and political transition, with the

Hope all goes well… Wishing you and your family a wonderful holiday and a happy, healthy, prosperous new year. As you may know, I take late-Dec off from writing. Lindsay Politi is stepping in. She is launching a fund focused on emerging opportunities in inflation-related markets that will complement One River’s existing Long Volatility and Systematic Trend funds. We see the world in a period of major economic and pol

“It’s just so obvious to us,” said Eric to the CEO and CRO over lunch. As I listened, the word ‘obvious’ gave me pause, but when so many people are painted into corners the outcome can appear predestined. Nearly every allocator we talk to needs to annualize at +7.5%, so they’re locked into some version of the same leveraged equity-centric portfolio. Everyone’s short inflation – some know, others don’t. Inflatio

“Why was consensus so wrong in the 1960s?” asked the US pension CIO. The 1960s parallel seems to be roughly playing out today: very low unemployment leading to higher wages had disrupted the stable, low interest rate regime. In 1965-66, a shift higher in yields sparked a scary correction in stocks and housing. Recession fears drove the Fed to pause and then reverse their hikes, incorrectly. “What did they miss?” pres

Hope all goes well… I take late-Dec off from writing. Lindsay Politi will be stepping in. She is launching a fund focused on emerging opportunities in inflation-related markets that will complement One River’s existing Long Volatility and Systematic Trend funds. We see the world in a period of major economic and political transition, with the investment landscape shifting in ways that will make the coming five years

“What really matters?” he wondered, the Pacific Ocean far below, magnificent, the flawless symmetry of its swell. “Brexit doesn’t really matter,” he thought, which is not to say it won’t create waves if it ever happens. “Italy matters more,” he thought, delicate ice crystals creeping in from the edges of his oval widow, nature’s order, grace. Europe’s political project has been fraught from the start and will remain