“Know what I’m grateful for Dad?” asked Jackson (16). We were headed back down the mountain, swiftly, steadily, darkness closing in. “I’m grateful it didn’t happen to Charlie, Teddy, Olivia, or Mom,” he said. Our five-hour climb up Mount Madison had been hard, unexpectedly steep. Charlie barely made it. The summit view stretched across New Hampshire’s presidential range, we relaxed in a mossy shallow, a mountain spri

Hope all goes well… “Wanna know what they’re asking Biggie?” bellowed Biggie Too, rocking through life in third person. “They say Biggie, tell us why this market is so oversold but can’t catch a bid,” continued the Global Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too Big to Fail affairs. “They say Biggie, tell us why the Feds announced a $800bln budget deficit from all that pretty stimulus but our small ca

The future is unknowable. Yet never has capital been so concentrated in strategies that depend on the future closely resembling the past. The most dominant of these strategies requires bonds to rally when stocks fall. For decades, both rose inexorably. And a new array of increasingly complex and illiquid strategies depends on a jump in volatility to be followed by a rapid decline of equal magnitude. They appear uncor

Hope all goes well… “I’ve been to three meetings, but I couldn’t tell you the club’s name,” confessed Jackson, my 16yr old. “Something to do with battling domestic abuse,” he continued, “The more clubs you have, the better your college app.” Club inflation has arrived, the Phillips curve finally kicked in. “My other club is SADD or something like that.” I asked what it meant. “Students against dumb decisions, or drun

“Why do people call ‘upstate’ New York upstate?” asked my Uber driver, grinding, we all are. “It’s a different country,” I answered. “I always like asking New Yorkers the question, and that’s usually the answer,” he said. Couldn’t quite place his accent, southern but not thick. “I was born upstate, Troy, New York, but never once been back,” I explained, surprised to hear it come out that way, another nomadic American

Hope all goes well… “The US is experiencing a remarkably positive set of economic circumstances,” said Jay Powell. “There’s really no reason to think this cycle can’t continue for quite some time,” continued the Fed Chairman. “We’re a long way from neutral Fed Funds at this point, probably.” Unemployment returned to the 1969 low of 3.7%, spurred by an unprecedented late-cycle fiscal stimulus. Q3 earnings are expected

“I remember imagining what I would’ve said to the police if he’d done something to me, and how it would’ve seemed I was to blame,” said Mara, my wife. “I woke up in a fraternity, still in my bra and underwear.” She’d never told me the story, but the Kavanaugh hearing brought it out. “I’d been at a party. The football team’s quarterback was cute, we kissed. I drank too much. He did too. And it was hot, so we stripped

Hope all goes well… “I was trying to preserve the institutional credibility of two institutions,” said Jeff Flake, the Arizona Republican. “One, the Supreme Court is the lone institution where most Americans still have some faith. And then the US Senate as an institution – we’re coming apart at the seams,” continued the Senator, having managed to buy a week for the FBI to investigate the Kavanaugh allegations.

“Trump represents authenticity,” said the Australian investor, reflecting. “Childish, self-centered, misogynistic, money-focused, bullying, full of shit – but authentically so,” he continued. As an American abroad, you discover most discussions weave their way back to The Donald, what his presidency says about the state of our union, our world, humanity. Nearly every foreigner I meet is appalled. But intrigued, perpl

Hope all goes well… “I’m not like the investors you’re meeting here in Sydney,” he said. “I live 40km inland, to the west. My friends and neighbors feel left behind, the elderly struggle to keep the heat on in winter. It’s a different world.” Australia has a new prime minister, its 5th in 5yrs — Scott Morrison is the socially conservative architect of Australia’s hardline anti-asylum seeker policies. “My peers