Hope all goes well… “Just keep swimming, just keep swimming,” said Olivia, my 15yr old, ready to roll. I’d asked what she thinks about during morning laps. “That’s what Dory tells herself, in Finding Nemo,” she explained. I remembered watching that movie with her, years ago, they fly so fast. Another summer gone, back to school. We pulled up to the pool, 5am darkness, cool pre-dawn energy. “What doesn’t kill you make

“I’m fortunate to live in a time where the political system allows my kind of work,” said the Physicist. “Historically, it’s not always so.” Below us particles raced around CERN’s 27km subterranean track, held in precise formation, accelerating toward collision, obliteration, observation. We discussed magic, mysteries, the sublime wonder all around. “It’s incredible that we’ve been able to learn so much about nature,

Hope all goes well… For the last three weeks Lindsay Politi has authored Weekend Notes, exploring the topic of inflation. She wrapped it up today (see below). I’ll be back next Sunday. All the best, E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China Caixin PMI manu -0.2 to 50.6 (14mth low), China official PMI manu +0.1 to 51.3, Indonesia rupiah 20yr low, Turkey central bank to “adjust monetary stance” in Sept (hin

Hope all goes well… Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, is authoring Weekend Notes during my late-summer hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. For the next two weeks, she’ll share her thoughts and ideas on inflation as well as conversations she has had with institutional investors, managers, and endo

Hope all goes well… Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, is authoring Weekend Notes during my late-summer hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. For the next few weeks, she’ll share her thoughts and ideas on inflation as well as conversations she has had with institutional investors, managers, and endo

“The Japanese experience has given investors the incorrect impression that sustained deflation is a likely outcome when it’s instead a unique case,” I explained. We were discussing US inflation, whether it is increasing or decreasing. Shorter-term economic and price trends are inherently volatile, so to examine inflation properly requires greater perspective. Which had brought us to Japan. Implicitly, Japan decided t

We met a large public pension because they were unhappy with their inflation-linked bond performance. I remembered when public pension funds added inflation-linked bonds to their policy portfolios in 2011/12. Around that same time, I was asked to advise a client about TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). They wanted to develop their own version of a risk parity portfolio. They were using historical returns

Hope all goes well…I usually recycle old anecdotes during my August break from writing. But I asked Lindsay Politi, who joined One River to manage a fund focused on opportunities in inflation markets, to author Weekend Notes during my hiatus. She came from Tudor and previously built/ran a $10bln TIPS business for Wellington. Lindsay has spent the last few months speaking to a diverse cross section of institutional in

Hope all goes well… I take Aug through early Sept off from weekend notes. Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about the dangers of genius, the value of experience (see below). Enjoy your August. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China’s renminbi stabilizes following Friday’s hike to 20% reserve requirements for speculative shorts, Saudi Arabia expels Canadian ambassador after Canada supports detained human

Hope all goes well… The US and EU account for over 50% of global GDP and have the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, exchanging $1.1trln of goods and services annually; there’s no more integrated economic relationship on earth. One-third of world trade involves the US and EU – the US is humanity’s #1 customer, accounting for 18% of all imports, the EU is #2 at 15%. Total US investment in the EU is 3x