“Americans are unwilling to save,” said the CIO. “The Japanese and Germans are unwilling to spend,” he continued. “If the latter two could generate exceptional investment returns on their savings they’d have all the money in the world within two business cycles.” They haven’t, and won’t. “The US model is credit-driven, with Americans in perpetual search of the sucker, like buyers of Tesla and Netflix bonds.” They loo

In Chicago’s commodity pits, we measured risk by calculating how much we’d personally lose if we got stopped out. Clearing firms stood in the shadows, scythes sharpened, Grim Reapers. At Lehman in the early 1990s it was no different. Then in 1995, management gave us a tool called Value-at-Risk (VaR). It seemed foolish at first, because it was. VaR calculated past correlations of each position to all others, observed

Hope all goes well… “What are you going to focus on in today’s game?” I asked. “Driving hard to the inside, picking my spots, making goals,” answered Jackson. He was behind the wheel, a full license just months away now. “What are your coaches telling you to focus on?” I asked. “Driving hard to the inside, picking my spots, making goals,” he said, smiling. “I feel like I’ve been too tentative the last couple games, a

“Where will we be in seven years?” asked Lithium, handsfree on Highway One, repeating my question. We were talking about stocks, which investors assume return 7% per year on average, forever. That means they rise 60% every 7yrs, which would leave the S&P 500 at 4300 in 2025. But GMO now forecasts that US large cap equities will return -2% per year in nominal terms each year for the next seven (-4.2% per year in r

Hope all goes well… “His legacy is more than the beautiful works of art that hang on walls across the world,” said the priest. Paul’s wife Tamie sat up front, his children, grandchildren. We filled the pews. Our lives unfinished works, his influence touching each in untold ways. “And that is not to diminish his substantial contribution to the art world.” The church was 12th century, lost in time, sinking into the Som

“The polls say I won the debate,” said the candidate, “but you and I know all about polls.” Perry Parker’s a good friend, we worked together for a decade, buying low, selling high. And having won in finance, he headed home to give back to Mississippi. When the 3rd congressional district seat opened up he made a bid. “The men say, ‘So you’re Trump without the tweets,’ and the women are like, ‘Exactly what are you goin

Hope all goes well… “I want to take the firm choice to defend democracy. It’s not a word we should become used to. It is a word with meaning which emerged from the battles of the past,” declared young Emmanuel Macron, urging Europe’s leaders to not become a “generation of sleepwalkers” in the shadow of authoritarianism rising in Poland, Hungary, the political fringe. “People haven’t given up on Europe. It’s the treac

Hope all goes well… “I got money managers asking what happens if we wake one day and he’s gone?” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone. “But my DC peeps say only Colonel Sanders can stop a 2nd term for Trump.” You see, the secret service can’t stop the fried chicken assault, raining down by the bucket load, shock-and-artery-awe. “The world’s 500 greatest companies jump and dive on every contradictory tweet, exasperating an

“Remember that bad oyster?” I asked. He groaned, it was years ago. “You know there’s no pretty way to deal with food poisoning. You got two options, both awful,” I continued. He agreed. We were talking politics, policy, our President. My brother is a scientist, entrepreneur. The greatest threat his company faces is that the Chinese steal his technology. Because that’s what they do. Sounds ugly, but if there’s an Amer

He looked back, steps in the snow. And retraced the extraordinary 10yr path to 2008. The Global Financial Crisis cut far deeper than recent predecessors; decades of policy to abolish the cycle had created the 100yr storm it sought to stem. Central bankers responded with a breathtaking experiment in the meaning of money, which was printed in quantities previously considered unfathomable, and priced at rates that defie