Hope all goes well… I take Aug through early Sept off from weekend notes. Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about the dangers of genius, the value of experience (see below). Enjoy your August. E Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China’s renminbi stabilizes following Friday’s hike to 20% reserve requirements for speculative shorts, Saudi Arabia expels Canadian ambassador after Canada supports detained human

Hope all goes well… The US and EU account for over 50% of global GDP and have the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship, exchanging $1.1trln of goods and services annually; there’s no more integrated economic relationship on earth. One-third of world trade involves the US and EU – the US is humanity’s #1 customer, accounting for 18% of all imports, the EU is #2 at 15%. Total US investment in the EU is 3x

“Every investor needs a mental model,” said the CIO. “Without one we’re lost.” We weaved through New York. “I developed mine years ago,” he said, crossing Lexington, mid-block, diagonally, headed south. “Markets move in cycles. After a euphoria comes the fall. But euphoria tends to persist.” The lights toggled on our approach to Park and 61st, we made our way, a steady pace. “Late cycle, if enough people ignore the w

“Global trade is a never-ending prisoner’s dilemma,” said the CIO, explaining that we’re collectively better off through cooperation but nevertheless periodically seek short-term advantage by exploiting the blindly optimistic. “The most successful prisoner’s dilemma strategy is ‘tit for tat’ in which both players cooperate initially.” But once one player chooses non-cooperation, the opponent retaliates with non-coope

Hope all goes well… I’m not thrilled,” said the President. “Now, I’m just saying the same thing I would’ve said as a private citizen,” continued the property developer. “So somebody would say, ‘Oh, maybe you shouldn’t say that as President.’ I couldn’t care less what they say, because my views haven’t changed.” The Federal Reserve’s 7 hikes widened the chasm between US interest rates and those of our foes. And Powell

Hope all goes well… The planet’s most powerful military threatened to reconsider NATO unless Europeans meet their spending commitments. Europe’s leaders repeated unfulfilled pledges to do just that, returning to their parliaments to find the funds. Earth’s biggest consumer threatened to impose 10% tariffs on another $200bln of imports from the planet’s largest producer. Beijing vowed to retaliate. Its deeply indebted

“I have no great gifts to offer other than a deep sense of the magic that’s possible for all of us…especially the kids,” wrote the guide, checking in from the Rockies. Teddy, our 13yr old, escaped Connecticut’s sea-level insanity to join him at altitude. In a blind race to Ivy League admission, America’s children now suffocate in summer sports. Two club leagues, sometimes three, speed clinics, strength training. “He’

His passion for it was fading. He knew that much. “But what to do?” whispered the Economist, mostly to himself. For decades he’d examined every word, placing it into context, comparing the endless stream of Fed statements to their predecessors. He took great pride in not missing a single interview by all twelve voting members. While he couldn’t recite Fed Chair press conferences verbatim, he got close. And that impre

Hope all goes well… “You know the one thing I want you all to take away from this experience?” I asked the kiddies. No one said a word, I was grateful, who knows what they were thinking. The shock of our latest family crisis had started to subside. And we were pretty sure Oliver would be okay in the end, his leg more shattered than the transatlantic Alliance. “Someday, when your husband or wife runs over the family d

Hope all goes well… “If the main priority is fighting this administration then we need to address the systemic problems that resulted in his rise in the first place — and that is perpetuation of the economic, social and racial injustice in the United States that has led to a rift that has created the room for a rise of a demagogue like Donald Trump,” said Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the authentic, charismatic 28y