“The period between now and 2020 will be decisive in finishing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects,” said Xi Jinping to 2,200 comrades. “Building on this, China will see the basic realization of socialist modernization by 2035 after 15 years of hard work,” he explained, abolishing the constitutional 2-term limit for Presidents. China is now making its move. For decades, its greatest fear h

Hope all goes well… “Wanna hear a joke?” asked Charlie, my 3rd grader. I nodded. “Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump all get into a boat.” I smiled. “They row into the middle of the ocean.” Okay. “And it sinks.” Whoa, sounds awful. “So who survives?” asked my 8-year old. I shrugged, certain I hadn’t told a political joke until my mid-twenties. “America!” he howled, doing a little dance, shaking his boo

Hope all goes well… “Hard to pinpoint why this happened,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But this kind of move usually reflects something below the surface.” Poorly designed VIX exchange-traded products are the fall guys. “Could it have simply been too much leverage and complacency? Doubt it.” VIX finished the week at 16.5, back below where it started the morning of Feb 5th. “I strug

“All children are born artists,” said Picasso, “The challenge is to remain an artist as we grow up.” I was watching ‘Do Schools Destroy Creativity,’ Sir Ken Robinson’s brilliant TED Talk. One of my portfolio managers had suggested it, Kanzo, and felt its wisdom held certain crossovers to the investment process. Sir Ken told a story: A little girl was in a drawing lesson. She was six, at the back, and hardly ever paid

Hope all goes well… “My heart goes out to every child who had to walk back into their classrooms today,” said the radio host as I drove my kids to school. “That’s what I’m talking about! I love this station!” cheered Teddy, laughing. “Shut up Teddy, she’s talking about the 17 kids who were shot dead at a school,” said Jackson, shaken, uncharacteristically. The car went quiet. “Who shot them?” asked Teddy. “Another ki

Hope all goes well… “March 2009,” whispered Yoda, high in the Rockies. “The market bounced sharply off 666, and minutes before the close rallied 30 points. This is how bear markets end.” The economy was in freefall, 10% unemployment, banks, earnings awful. “Bear markets find valleys. Bull markets find summits.” said Yoda. Gentle white trails swirled off distant peaks, winter’s fierce wind, snow. “At the bottom all is

They searched frantically for fundamental factors, nerds scurrying over Excel worksheets like rats on a sinking ship. Financial reporters hit speed dials. Talking heads peppered portfolio managers. Unemployment hovers near 1960 lows. Earnings are at records, growing double digits, fastest since 2011. Profit margins are amongst history’s highest. The global economy enjoys a rare synchronized expansion. Not a single tr

It raced across the night sky at 150,000 mph. No larger than a marble. The meteorite vanished in a trail of brilliant light, a faint green copper glow, come and gone. And his heart raced, recalling that first shooting star, decades ago, a child in a backseat, face pressed to the window, searching the heavens. His excitement late that night, replaced by profound sadness. The tragic fate of that distant star, its surro

Hope all goes well… “Things had been too easy for too long,” said Roadrunner, the equity market’s biggest volatility trader. “Yet vol has found a bid on each dip for weeks,” he said. “The market saw this coming.” The S&P 500 rallied +7.5% in the first 18 trading days of 2018. Yet implied volatility levels rose. Then stocks fell -3.9% in 5 days. “When stocks dump on a Friday, closing at the lows, and you haven’t h

Hope all goes well… Weekend notes started in 2010, almost by accident. I jotted down things each week that made me think. As it evolved, I pushed harder to discover unique perspectives, interesting questions, occasional answers. From exceptional people. And that led to a series of discoveries. The first of which is that exceptional people are rather similar, in that they have a deep, insatiable, child-like curiosity.