Hope all goes well… “When the smartest guys say we’re ninth inning,” bellowed Biggie Too in baritone, “we’re 7th inning, maybe 8th.” The S&P 500 finished November +2.8%, its eighth consecutive monthly gain, a refrain last heard in 2007. Year-to-date the index jumped +18.3%, the forward P/E is 19. Bitcoin popped +1,015% in that time. Market volatility faded to 50yr lows. $8trln of bonds carry negative yields. Inte

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from Thanksgiving 2015 (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Beijing tightens shadow banking regulations, Japan exports -0.1 to +14% (imports +6.9 to +18.9%), German coalition talks fail (Merkel calls new election), US sues to prevent AT&T/Time Warner merger, S&P +0.1%; Tue: Tencent market cap surpasses F

Hope all goes well… “This market will end not in euphoria,” said the CIO. “It will be a cynical end, with investors publicly expressing their concern about valuations, while carrying maximum risk in their portfolios.” Hedge fund net long positioning just hit 11yr highs, along with so many extended barometers. “The shadow of 2008 still hangs over the industry. No one wants to sound overly optimistic.” Current valuatio

“The market has an accident, the Fed returns to QE, slashes interest rates, bonds surge, stocks recover,” said the CIO, high atop his prodigious pile, alone. Staring into the distance. Squinting, straining. “The correlation between bonds and equities remains negative, the risk parity equity/bond portfolios are dented but not destroyed. And we descend to the next lower level in real interest rates. US bond yields turn

“Bitcoin is important,” said Lithium, handsfree on Highway One. “It reminds people that supply scarcity, capital flows, and imagination, matter more than anything.” Bitcoin printed another 20% weekly range. “Risk tolerance is the market’s most important fundamental,” said Lithium, racing through Malibu, SoCal’s sun streaming, steaming, “It’s also the most mysterious of all market drivers.” Like every form of intangib

Hope all goes well… “You know the biggest difference between coaching 3rd grade and high school?” asked Head Coach Grant. And our team fidgeted, squirmed, joked. What a football season we’ve had. I think we won one game but it’s hard to say for sure, after so many months of torture your mind starts to play tricks. Charlie really sucked. But he never cared. Nor did I. Way too early to take this seriously. Charlie’s th

Overall: “If voting made a difference, they would make it illegal,” tweeted Julian Assange, Agitator in Chief, tucked tightly into the Ecuadorian Embassy, his home of five years. Madrid had just arrested nine Catalonian democratically elected parliamentarians, charged with rebellion, sedition and embezzlement. 90% of Catalan voters who defied Spanish riot police, voted for independence. Catalonians are not alone in t

“The most common example is a ball sitting atop a hill,” she said, polished accent, hint of condescension. “Locally stable, but one nudge and it’s all over.” She drove terribly fast, discussing Minsky Moments; the idea that persistent stability breeds instability. “Naturally each cycle is different in key respects, and that’s because you’re far better at preventing past problems from recurring than new ones from aris

Hope all goes well… “There is no one left at a bottom and no one left at a top,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies, autumn fading, peaks dusted. “Value investors bought the S&P 500 down to 800 in 2009, yet it fell to 666.” That last panic leg found the final seller. “The search for the final buyer has begun,” said Yoda, the market’s biggest S&P 500 local, stepping carefully, deliberate, staff in hand. “We’ll fin

Hope all goes well… Abe wins landslide, Nikkei soars to 21yr high. Xi Jinping is named in China’s constitution, cementing his place alongside Mao, equities jump. House Republicans pass $4trln budget resolution, lifting hopes for a $1.5tlrn tax cut/reform. Despite devastating hurricanes, US Q3 GDP expands 3%, S&P 500 hits record high. VIX 9.80. Biggest Nasdaq 100 daily gain in 2yrs. Bezos becomes world’s richest m