Hope all goes well… “March 2009,” whispered Yoda, high in the Rockies. “The market bounced sharply off 666, and minutes before the close rallied 30 points. This is how bear markets end.” The economy was in freefall, 10% unemployment, banks, earnings awful. “Bear markets find valleys. Bull markets find summits.” said Yoda. Gentle white trails swirled off distant peaks, winter’s fierce wind, snow. “At the bottom all is

They searched frantically for fundamental factors, nerds scurrying over Excel worksheets like rats on a sinking ship. Financial reporters hit speed dials. Talking heads peppered portfolio managers. Unemployment hovers near 1960 lows. Earnings are at records, growing double digits, fastest since 2011. Profit margins are amongst history’s highest. The global economy enjoys a rare synchronized expansion. Not a single tr

It raced across the night sky at 150,000 mph. No larger than a marble. The meteorite vanished in a trail of brilliant light, a faint green copper glow, come and gone. And his heart raced, recalling that first shooting star, decades ago, a child in a backseat, face pressed to the window, searching the heavens. His excitement late that night, replaced by profound sadness. The tragic fate of that distant star, its surro

Hope all goes well… “Things had been too easy for too long,” said Roadrunner, the equity market’s biggest volatility trader. “Yet vol has found a bid on each dip for weeks,” he said. “The market saw this coming.” The S&P 500 rallied +7.5% in the first 18 trading days of 2018. Yet implied volatility levels rose. Then stocks fell -3.9% in 5 days. “When stocks dump on a Friday, closing at the lows, and you haven’t h

Hope all goes well… Weekend notes started in 2010, almost by accident. I jotted down things each week that made me think. As it evolved, I pushed harder to discover unique perspectives, interesting questions, occasional answers. From exceptional people. And that led to a series of discoveries. The first of which is that exceptional people are rather similar, in that they have a deep, insatiable, child-like curiosity.

“Totally failed. The second he told me how he figured it out, I wanted to puke,” admitted my 16yr old, “can’t believe I didn’t think of it first.” I’d asked Jackson if he solved the problem. You see, last summer, my friend flew his family to Santa Barbara to surf. But discovered that Great White Sharks now mysteriously infest the waters. It’s a problem for most, but not him. He’s mad. The greatest humans always are,

Hope all goes well… “Under the political ecology which is built by the factional rivalries, factional interests are prioritized, and it is hard for the gov’t to focus on the management of the national economy and social development,” wrote China’s credit rating agency, downgrading US gov’t debt from A- to BBB+. “The perennial negative impact of the superstructure on the economic base has continued to deteriorate the

Hope all goes well… Our Santa Barbara team is safe and sound. Thanks for asking. Chase’s parents survived the mud slides, they were ground zero. Somehow their house didn’t collapse. Everything around it did. Their next-door neighbor and close family friend died. He woke his son in the middle of the night to escape but the house collapsed and they were swept away. Holding on to one another. The son awoke 3/4 of a mile

Hate crowds. Love fresh air. Long runs, sunshine, storms, horizons. Solitude. Altitude. So when we moved the firm from California’s mountains to Connecticut’s flats I promised to avoid tight spaces, low ceilings, rush hours. “How many people are here tonight?” I asked the maître d’, entering the private dining room. “Twenty-three at last count,” he answered to my horror. “Terrific, vodka tonic, three limes, keep ’em

Hope all goes well… “You know the best thing about Jackson jamming Charlie head-first into a snow pile?” asked Teddy, attempting to lighten conversation. The family dinner table shrugged, Charlie’s Chernobyl-red cheeks evaporated his dwindling tears. They’d been shoveling the driveway in the dark. Which is what happens when I come home to discover our kids spent the snow-day doing every conceivable thing other than t