Overall: Rain fell. The water rose. Rivers flowed. Their snaking paths hidden beneath a vast flood plain. Not a soul was spared. Not the whites, blacks, browns, reds or yellows. Not the Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, or Atheists. They all got wet. And thrashing about up to their waists, these Americans joined hands, worked their way out. Which is not to say it was pretty. Disasters never are, neither a

I love movies. Scary ones especially. Keep your happy endings, give me chainsaws. Meat hooks. I’ll never forget ERM in 1992. That was my first real snuff flick as a Lehman prop trader. The Italians never stood a chance in the film, they never do. Show me an Italian who can resist a dark woodshed and I’ll show you a hero in a hockey mask. At least the Swedes put up a fight in the flick. Their central bankers raised ov

Hope all goes well… “Awesome day Dad,” said Olivia, talking fast, braces, braids, 2nd day at her new school. “Teachers are great, kids are super nice.” I smiled, driving home. “Just one problem, three different girls asked me to be their roommate for the school trip to Boston.” I waited for an explanation. “And I said yes to all three without really thinking.” No doubt, getting caught short can be a real problem. “Bu

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about pain, nonlinearity (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese bank leverage declines $270bln YTD (1st decline in 7yrs), Bannon fired (returns to Breitbart), Trump to prioritize tax reform, Trump announces Afghanist

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese bank leverage declines $270bln YTD (1st decline in 7yrs), Bannon fired (returns to Breitbart), Trump to prioritize tax reform, Trump announces Afghanistan build-up, S&P +0.1%; Tue: Chinese firms who trade with North Korea targeted by US prosecutors, South Korea and US military drills underway, South Korea and US begin talks on potential trade pact renegotiatio

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China ind production +6.8% (fixed asset investment +8.3%, retail sales +10.4%), PBOC fixes CNY 1yr high, Japan Q2 GDP +4.0% on strong domestic demand and capital investment (fastest GDP since Q1 2015), Germany’s Schulz insists he can beat Merkel Sept 24th, Schaeuble “ECB to quit ultra-loose policies in foreseeable future,” Fed’s Dudley “expects to hike once more this year

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2013 about standing up, (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you again in Sept with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China ind production +6.8% (fixed asset investment +8.3%, retail sales +10.4%), PBOC fixes CNY 1yr high, Japan Q2 GDP +4.0% on strong domestic demand and capital in

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: HK dollar nears decade low vs US dollar, iron ore prices +7%, Indonesia GDP +5.0%, South Africa to hold Zuma no-confidence vote, UBS “pilotless planes could save airlines $35bln,” UK home prices +2.1%, German industrial output -2.6 to +2.4%, Fed’s Bullard “even if unemployment rate continues to fall, the effect on inflation likely to be small,” VIX hits 50yr low, credit c

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 about castles made of sand (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: HK dollar nears decade low vs US dollar, iron ore prices +7%, Indonesia GDP +5.0%, South Africa to hold Zuma no-confidence vote, UBS “pilotless planes

Hope all goes well… In place of weekend notes, I wrote a piece titled: The Case for Long Volatility (see below). We see a compelling opportunity developing in the months ahead and are launching a fund to capture it. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China services PMI -0.4 to 54.5, Japan IP -1.6 to +4.9%, iron ore prices 4mth high, EU CPI unch at +1.3%, EU unemployment 9.1% (2009 lows), US issues sanction