Hope all goes well… “Do you want to live there?” asked Charlie (8), pedaling next to Mara, skirting the border of our local farm, “You love barns Mommy.” And she laughed. “I don’t think so Charlie, I love our home, and besides, this farm costs a fortune.” 63 waterfront acres offered at $175mm. No one told the farmer that 2 & 20 was last season’s crop. “What if I just gave it to you mommy, what would you do then?”

Hope all goes well… “Understanding 2017 performance is simple,” said the investor. “There are two distinct groups,” he continued. “Managers trading the turn and managers riding the wave.” Professional investors all acknowledge we’re late cycle. But we differ on where late-cycle meets land’s-end. “Most managers have been trading the turn this year, while a few are giving the market more time – mostly emerging market g

“Oh dear,” said the CIO, from Tokyo. “No sooner have we declared that Japan is no longer experiencing deflation than we are looking to pre-empt inflation.” We were discussing Kuroda, who in a recent speech quoted Ralph Hawtrey, pioneer in the field of central bank expectations management. “In his book ‘Monetary Reconstruction’ published in 1923, Hawtrey stated that “it is not the past rise in prices but the future ri

Overall: “Absolutely,” answered Trump, as sure as sure can be. You see, the reporter had asked if Mexico would pay. She couldn’t help herself, we’re fixated by walls. We need them; to build, to topple, to scale. They define us, give us purpose. Walls surround us, they’re everywhere, literally, metaphorically. “We are showing that the world doesn’t have to go 100 years back in time,” announced Tusk, symbolically isola

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Italian E17bln bailout of 2 banks, EU iTraxx financials 51bps (below EU corporates at 53bps for 1st time since 2011), UK conservatives strike deal with DUP, UK consumer credit growth decelerates, German business confidence record high, US May durable goods orders drop 2nd month, Supreme Court rules to partially impose Trump’s travel ban, Senate healthcare bill to cut 22mm

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about taking shots (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Happy 4th of July! Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Italian E17bln bailout of 2 banks, EU iTraxx financials 51bps (below EU corporates at 53bps for 1st time since 2011), UK conservatives strike deal with DUP, UK consumer credit growth decelerates, German business confidence recor

“Picketty took 400 pages to prove something that is glaringly obvious and he under-proved it,” said The Dealer, shuffling. “Ninety-five percent of the poker room loses money to five percent of the players,” he explained, relaxed, chatting. “Redistributing ten percent of the winner’s gains after every month of play wouldn’t change that outcome.” I picked up each card, deliberately, as if it was a blessing. “But would

Hope all goes well… I am two-hundred years old. I’ve never repaid my debts. In fact, I’ve defaulted eight times, most recently in 2002. No, I’m not Donald Trump. But I did just borrow $2.75bln for 100yrs from folks who manage other people’s retirement savings for a living. None of these investors will be alive at maturity, nor have the people who repay this debt been born yet. There’s no chance they’ll repay this. Bu

Overall: “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity,” said Einstein, “and I’m not sure about the universe.” He would know. After all, he was a genius. But of course, anyone who fled the Nazis in 1933 would have recognized our capacity for insanity. Germany’s devastating loss was America’s gain; the universe conspired, as it does, to place Albert and his inquiries in the place they were most welc

Hope all goes well… “I got another one of those questions that you can’t answer Mommy,” said Charlie, buckled in the backseat. “Let’s call Sitaprana,” suggested Mara, dialing our spiritual go-to, Vedanta nun – a California connection. “Hi Charlie, what’s up?” asked Sita. “Well, I’m wondering what heaven looks like?” he asked, earnest. Without pause, she answered, “Close your eyes, look within, you’ll see it.” Charlie