“No one makes money in the chop,” said the CIO. “People make money on big moves.” Trump held his press carnival, markets swung wildly. “The Yen was at 117 two days ago. Now it’s 114. Tomorrow it may trade 117. Will anyone make money?” A few will, most won’t. “Nearly 100% of trading returns last year were made between November 8th and December 15th.” The dollar rallied 13% versus the Yen in that time. Ten-year treasur

Overall: “The Central Intelligence Agency will absolutely not resume using banned interrogation techniques, such as waterboarding, if ordered to do so by President Trump,” explained Mike Pompeo, The Donald’s already-insubordinate nominee for CIA chief. But it’s only insubordination if our new Commander-in-Chief were to send those bearded-boys to the water-board. To get elected he said “torture works,” America should

Hope all goes well… “Total fiasco, utter circus!” cried the CIO. “KGB videos, golden showers, kompromat, and his temper tantrum over that CNN reporter,” he continued, breathless. “Single worst press conference for a world leader in history. The $2bln Dubai deal. That random pile of manila folders. The dopey lawyer. Gimmicks, conspiracies, rambling bluster. We didn’t learn a single thing about policy. For the sake of

Teddy suspected something was up. And started probing, throwing stones in our house of mirrors. “Santa isn’t real,” he announced, unsure. Mara swept in for a rescue operation, pulling Teddy aside, telling him the truth, co-opting him in the grand conspiracy to maintain the magic for little Charlie, our youngest. But we see what we want to see, hear what we want to hear, believe what we want to believe. That’s as true

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: New Year’s Day (observed), S&P closed; Tue: German CPI surges +1.0 to +1.7% (3yr high), German 6% unemployment steady at 30yr low, Ford scraps plans to build $1.6bln Mexican factory citing Trump, Congress withdraws bill to eviscerate Ethics Committee after Trump tweet, Trump tweet threatens GM with import duties on Mexican-made cars, US credit card write-offs hit reco

Hope all goes well… “Never short markets that are rising for reasons unknown,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “And don’t buy markets that are falling without explanation,” he continued, looking out across open landscape, snowfields shrouding the jagged terrain in mystery. “There is no more powerful force than the unknown.” Our seven-year equity rally has lacked a story to ignite imaginations, passions. Caution has p

Hope all goes well… Snuck up to The White Mountains. To get a little altitude, read a couple books, and ski some New Hampshire Blue with Mara and the kiddies. “I can’t ski this, I can’t slide this, you must be freakin’ joking here, I’m gonna die!” screamed Teddy, 20 yards above me on the trail, frozen atop a solid blue waterfall, perfectly placed in the middle of an intermediate trail. “You think he’ll really die?” w

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Boxing Day, S&P unch; Tue: Abe meets Obama in Pearl Harbor, Japan retail sales +1.7%, Russia calls US decision to arm Syrian rebels a “hostile act,” Pakistan defense minister threatens Israel with nuclear response after reading fake news, S&P +0.2%; Wed: China industrial profits +15%, Terrorist bombing at China communist party offices in Xinjiang, Japan vehicle pr

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China home prices rise in 55 of 72 cities (Beijing prices flat mth/mth for 1st time in 2yrs), Japan raises 2017/18 GDP forecasts 0.3 to +1.5%, Japan Nov trade surplus $4.6bln (imports -8.8%, exports -0.4%), Russia’s ambassador to Turkey assassinated, Polish protests in 3rd day, Berlin terrorist attack kills 12, Moody’s warns of Greek credit risk, S&P +0.2%; Tue: Japan

Hope all goes well… Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. To you and your families. Resurrected this opening from my note on Christmas day 2013… “Santa slipped down the chimney. Left big boot prints in the ash, that spilled across our hearth. And the jolly fella stuffed stockings. Built a train set too. Sprinkled magic everywhere. Moments before the kiddies emerged, sporting their finest bedhead, Santa lit candles. Warmin