“What’s good for the US in this case, is not good for emerging markets,” said the CIO. “Emerging markets benefit from a weaker dollar, and you’re not going to get that,” he continued. “Emerging markets benefit from global capital flows moving in their direction and that’s not happening either.” Back in February, emerging markets were in sharp decline, driven by (1) a strong dollar, (2) rising US interest rates

Hope all goes well… “Markets are most dangerous when they’re extremely overbought and oversold,” said Yoda high in the Rockies, the jagged landscape freshly dusted. “The most probable risk is always a sharp reversal,” he said, looking far into the distance, back in time, so many patterns. “That’s why it’s this outcome that they experience most often – it’s this risk they most fear.” Yoda paused, the decades swi

“Let’s say you and I were both Italian politicians,” said the CIO. “We’d conclude that ‘Abandon the Euro’ platform is a can’t lose proposition.” We might not win the next election, but we’d eventually prevail. “Italy had an imperfect system that worked for ages; increase annual wages 10% then devalue the Lira 15% to stay internationally competitive.” Germany had the opposite; raise wages modestly and pursue a strong

Overall: “British spenders have entirely looked through post-Brexit uncertainty,” said Mark Carney. “Consumer jitters were notable by their absence,” continued the Bank of England governor. UK wages kept growing, confidence remained solid, business investment resilient. So the Bank of England forecast its biggest inflation overshoot since 1997; expecting 2018 price gains to peak at +2.8%. Now, let’s assume that havin

Hope all goes well… “Absent Trump winning, nothing changes,” said the CIO. “But if he does, everything could.” Weinergate hit the tapes late Friday. Yet another Dickileaks scandal, and this one with just 11 days to go. “As an immigrant here in America, I don’t want to see the kind of change he represents, but as a guy running a macro fund, I kind of do,” he admitted, pounding the Mexican peso like a piñata. “I reckon

Overall: “We prefer to not keep interest rates at such low levels for an excessively long time,” announced Draghi, squinting. “Unwelcome side-effects may accumulate over time,” continued the central banker, staring, straining to see, the future blurry. Never in human history has the outlook been so uncertain. Homo Sapiens hunted and gathered for 150 monotonous millennia. Then farmed for 120 mind numbing centuries, un

“We decided to close our firm,” read the email from a friend. I moved it to a folder that’s filling up fast. Been a brutal year in an unforgiving industry. Change is in the air. It usually arrives slowly, quietly, fog. But sometimes change is a hurricane. Today’s tempest is snapping saplings, uprooting oaks. A large state pension just announced a “Back to Basics” investment strategy; the commission voted unanimously

Overall: “You watch Saturday Night Live?” asked the CIO, high atop his prodigious pile. Of course I had. “How about Colbert?” he asked. Yup. “The Daily Show?” Naturally. “Did you make it through the debate or just catch the highlights?” Watched it all. “I’m not the puppet, you’re the puppet!” he shouted, repeatedly, losing his mind. We all are. And attempting to move on, I asked if he’d seen Norway’s $880bln sovereig

Hope all goes well… “You do know that in 2012, Obama won Florida by just 74k voters?” asked the political analyst. I didn’t. “There were still 725k eligible Latinos who didn’t vote,” he said. “And did you know that there were 2.5mm eligible white voters in Florida without a college education?” Didn’t know that either. That’s a lot of votes in a state where Obama received 4.237mm votes to Romney’s 4.163mm. It’s an awf

“Right back where we started,” said the CIO, spinning, dizzy. “Twelve months ago we were talking about a December rate hike.” The Fed was intent on normalizing interest rates, and if the rest of the world struggled to adjust, so be it. “It was their experiment with raising real interest rates and they were telling us to expect four more hikes in 2016.” Inflation had remained subdued ever since the 2008 crisis, but in