Nothing really matters, except things that really matter. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, that really mattered. Because it marked the end of a war that divided. Beginning a prosperous peace that united. Then the Maastricht Treaty was approved in 1992. It contained convergence criteria that paved the way for Europe’s disparate nations to integrate economically. We’ve been on that path ever since, investors rewarded

Overall: “The economic outlook is inherently uncertain, so each participant’s assessment of appropriate policy is also necessarily uncertain, especially at longer time horizons,” said Janet Yellen, uncertain. “You know, obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen to productivity growth, but productivity growth could stay low for a prolonged time and we have aging societies in many parts of the wor

“Today’s macro carry trades are found in emerging markets, and they’re inevitably cross asset trades,” explained the CIO. These opportunities arise because people who trade equities, foreign exchange, interest rates and commodities don’t really talk to each other; literally and figuratively. Correlations between these markets exists, but no one seems to care. Which creates opportunity. “It’s why in February you bough

Hope all goes well… “Japanese stocks are down 25% from last year’s peak,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “If our market fell 25% we’d be jumping out of buses – which is what we’d be riding.” Gulfstream G6s blinked overhead, filling the skies, Aspen fire flies. “Savers have been forced into so many risky investments,” he said, a warm mountain breeze appeared from nowhere, then vanished. “And now the S&P 500

Hope all goes well… “Gambling websites say Brexit’s a 3-1 bet against,” said the CIO. “And if you polled every one of us who wager for a living, I reckon 90% would say the Brits Bremain.” I mooed in agreement, nose nestled in tail, huddled in the herd. He mooed back. “But the polls are 50/50, margin-of-error kind of stuff, and they were pretty good in the Scottish referendum, the London mayoral vote too.” Brexit woul

Overall: “The man who has no imagination has no wings,” said Muhammad Ali, floating away, like a butterfly, his words carried by the wind. “Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they’ve been given than to explore the power they have to change it,” said Ali. Europe slumbered, greatness slipping its grasp, its lofty ambition – the power of union – n

“We’re trapped in an unstable equilibrium,” said Simplicity. “The Fed gets hawkish, the dollar rallies, stocks fall, the Fed gets dovish, the dollar falls, stocks rally, and the Fed gets hawkish,” he continued, dizzy, walking Occam’s razor edge. “This year’s money will be made when the cycle breaks.” A stubbornly hawkish Fed could break the cycle, raising rates in a determined fashion, enduring a dollar rally, weaker

Overall: “Negative interest rates have the effect of monetary tightening,” whispered Takehiro Sato, to his eight fellow board members seated in deep meditation, at the Bank of Japan. And as the paradoxical elegance of this Zen koan washed across their unsettled consciousness, he smiled, serene, a pristine mountain pool. “What is the sound of one hand clapping?” continued Sato, the dissident central banker, trying to

Hope all goes well… “Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!” he cried, atop a prodigious pile of private equity. “You hear that cry at the highs of every cycle, when the feeding frenzy gives guys like me the chance to sell our overleveraged deals, our walking dead,” he continued, dizzy from so many turns. And on alert for such a sign, he paused, hearing distant cries, moans, groans. But with the US non-farm payrol

“Someone once asked, ‘Are there any deals that got away from you that you wished you’d done?’” said the private equity managing partner. “Truth is, I wish I’d done every single deal that has crossed my desk over the course of my entire career,” he said, laughing, running his fingers through a greying mane. “It’s that simple. I would have lost money on plenty, but I’d have made so much more on the winners.” Would his