“We’re trapped in an unstable equilibrium,” said Simplicity. “The Fed gets hawkish, the dollar rallies, stocks fall, the Fed gets dovish, the dollar falls, stocks rally, and the Fed gets hawkish,” he continued, dizzy, walking Occam’s razor edge. “This year’s money will be made when the cycle breaks.” A stubbornly hawkish Fed could break the cycle, raising rates in a determined fashion, enduring a dollar rally, weaker

Overall: “Negative interest rates have the effect of monetary tightening,” whispered Takehiro Sato, to his eight fellow board members seated in deep meditation, at the Bank of Japan. And as the paradoxical elegance of this Zen koan washed across their unsettled consciousness, he smiled, serene, a pristine mountain pool. “What is the sound of one hand clapping?” continued Sato, the dissident central banker, trying to

Hope all goes well… “Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!” he cried, atop a prodigious pile of private equity. “You hear that cry at the highs of every cycle, when the feeding frenzy gives guys like me the chance to sell our overleveraged deals, our walking dead,” he continued, dizzy from so many turns. And on alert for such a sign, he paused, hearing distant cries, moans, groans. But with the US non-farm payrol

“Someone once asked, ‘Are there any deals that got away from you that you wished you’d done?’” said the private equity managing partner. “Truth is, I wish I’d done every single deal that has crossed my desk over the course of my entire career,” he said, laughing, running his fingers through a greying mane. “It’s that simple. I would have lost money on plenty, but I’d have made so much more on the winners.” Would his

Week-in-Review: Mon: G7 meeting produces no firm actions (Aso/Lew disagree on disorderly Yen moves), Japan manu PMI 47.6, Japan trade surplus 6yr high (exports -10.1%, imports -23.3%), Australia revises inflation forecasts lower, Afghanistan Taliban leader killed by drone, Russia unemp 5.9% (retail sales 6.4%, real wages -1.7%), EU PMI -0.1 to 52.9 (service 53.1, manu 52.4), Greece approves necessary legislation to r

Hope all goes well… “Tough day little man?” I asked Charlie, kicking off family dinner. He looked at me, puzzled. “Your hair’s turned grey, seems premature, you’re six.” The table erupted. Jackson, Olivia, unable to contain their laughter. Teddy pounded the table, howling. Mara and I looked at one another, confused. And there sat Charlie, quiet, a sly smile. “Ok Teddy, so what happened today?” Tears rolled, sno

Overall: “It’s an apocalypse!” cried Italian Minister Lorenzin. “If we fail to reverse the trend, in 10 years there will be fewer than 350,000 births annually, 40 percent less than in 2010,” she continued, desperate. “Since 2011 we’ve lost 66,000 births per year, the equivalent of a city the size of Sienna.” Now, let’s be honest, ever since Romulus killed Remus, the average Roman male hasn’t discovered a problem he c

Hope all goes well… “The market is not positioned for a big move to the upside,” said Roadrunner, the industry’s biggest equity vol trader. “We’ve seen massive volume in options, someone’s selling skew, distorting volatility in way you almost never see.” The consequence is option traders are heavily short futures. On weakness they buy. On a strong rally, they’ll scramble to cover. “If volatility picks up as the S&

Opened the hatch and he bolted. A dead run. Off I jogged, in steady pursuit. The two of us on a rainy morning, deep into the woods, sublime spring glory. Shackleton’s a golden, a generous spirit, nine months old. Meaning he’s equal part heaven and hellion. Barking, bolting. Chewing, humping. He loves rabbits, deep mud, and dreams of going Guantanamo on the squirrels that terrorize his long days, confined to our yard

Hope all goes well… “Jackson’s so dumb, he threw a rock at the ground and missed,” taunted Teddy. “Teddy’s so stupid, he put a ruler next to his bed to see how long he slept,” countered Jackson. “You’re both so ugly that when you entered an ugly contest, they said, no professionals allowed,” chortled Charlie, wiggling in. I turned our Suburban’s radio up. “Yo Mama is so done with you boys that when we get home you al